Posted: 2023-02-28 17:54:02

A lack of properties for sale and the first rise in Sydney home prices in more than a year have stabilised real estate values across the nation.

CoreLogic's Hedonic Home Value Index has recorded its smallest fall since interest rates started rising in May last year, at just 0.1 per cent for February.

The rival PropTrack index, using a slightly different methodology, is even more upbeat, recording a 0.2 per cent bounce in home prices nationally last month.

Both data providers say Sydney house prices drove the national result, with CoreLogic finding that they rose for the first time since January 2022, with a 0.3 per cent monthly gain.

Westpac's economics team noted that the rise in Sydney corresponded with tax changes implemented by the New South Wales government that allow most first-home buyers the choice of paying an ongoing land tax rather than a one-off stamp duty, significantly reducing up-front purchase costs.

However, price declines generally eased across the nation, according to CoreLogic.

CoreLogic home value index, February 2023.
CoreLogic home value index, February 2023.(Supplied: CoreLogic)

Darwin (-0.3 per cent) was the only capital to see a steeper fall in February than the month before, while Hobart was the only city posting a decline above 0.5 per cent (-1.4 per cent).

CoreLogic's research director Tim Lawless said there were fewer properties for sale on the market, putting a floor under prices.

Tim Lawless in a suit on a street.
Tim Lawless says prices are being kept up by a lack of new stock coming onto the market.(ABC News: Geoff Kemp)

"The past four weeks have seen the flow of new capital city listings tracking -17.0 per cent lower than a year ago and -11.9 per cent below the previous five-year average," he noted.

"This trend towards a below-average flow of new listings has been evident since September last year, coinciding with a loss of momentum in the rate of value decline."

PropTrack senior economist Eleanor Creagh said that was true for every capital except Hobart, explaining its continued steep price falls.

Portrait of Eleanor Creagh
Eleanor Creagh says Hobart is bucking the national trend of fewer listings.(Twitter @Eleanor_Creagh)

"Total listings are up more than 30 per cent in comparison to the previous five-year average. That increase in choice has eased competition between buyers," she observed.

'Reprieve could be short-lived'

While the pace of property price declines has eased in recent months, CoreLogic has posed the question of whether this is the "bottom of the cycle or eye of the storm?"

Mr Lawless said the prospect of further interest rate rises, weaker economic conditions and a rise in unemployment over the coming months all threaten to cause another down leg in property prices.

"There is a good chance this reprieve in the housing downturn could be short-lived," he warned.

"We also have the fixed-rate cliff ahead of us: arguably the full impact of the aggressive rate-hiking cycle is yet to play out."

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