Pacific leaders are once again preparing for their biggest meeting of the year, this time in the sprawling island nation of Tonga.

It is an undeniably beautiful place to hold a major regional gathering.

The leaders retreat will be held on the stunning tropical island of Vava'u, and Tonga's prime minister has hinted he'll take the dignitaries out on a boat to admire the majestic humpback whales which winter in its warm waters.

But the stunning backdrop shouldn't obscure the magnitude and complexity of the problems which Pacific island leaders will have to grapple with.

And while Tonga is enthusiastic about holding the meeting, it still had to face some formidable logistical challenges to make it happen.

Preparations ramp up

Hosting hundreds of politicians, diplomats, officials and journalists from across the Pacific is never an easy task, and this year's Pacific Islands Forum leaders meeting will be no exception.

Tonga is still feeling some lingering impacts from the massive Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai underwater volcano which erupted early in 2022, triggering a devastating tsunami and blanketing much of the country in thick volcanic ash.

Some Tongan resorts closed their doors and never reopened them in the wake of the disaster, and accommodation in the capital Nuku'alofa is tight, with every room booked out for the week leaders arrive.

Tonga's government has rushed to put up more than 100 prefabricated temporary homes to house delegates, with many of the capital's carpenters, builders, plumbers and electricians seemingly pulled into the national effort.

The government has also rounded up stray dogs, and beautified city streets and small villages alike to present the country at its very best.

It has been a mad scramble to get everything ready, putting a strain on Tonga's modest resources.

But nobody could reasonably question the huge effort put into making it a success.

The country's political leaders will now be hoping the whole meeting goes off without a hitch.

New Caledonia

Leaders are certain to discuss the violent unrest this year in the French Pacific territory of New Caledonia, which remains riven by political and racial fault lines.

Pacific nations are trying to work out exactly what role they can (or should) play to try and help bring peace.

This is easier said than done. Fiji's Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka, Solomon Islands Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele and Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown were all meant to make a high-profile visit to New Caledonia last week ahead of the Tonga PIF meeting.

But the mission was pushed back after a dispute broke out between the French government and New Caledonia's local government over exactly who had control over it; a powerful reminder of just how complex and combustible the political environment is on the ground.

Pacific leaders were horrified by the outbreak of unrest, but many – fairly or not — blame France for the chaos.

Some would like to see PIF leaders use the meeting in Tonga to issue a clear statement which calls on Paris to sketch out a new pathway for decolonisation in the wake of the contentious third independence referendum.

Some Pacific leaders have also championed the idea of the Pacific playing a mediation role.

But France remains deeply allergic to that proposal, at least if it involves discussions between the French state and pro-independence leaders.

Some Pacific leaders also worry that if they push too hard then they'll just inflame the situation further, and want to focus largely on simply calling for calm and peace.

The fact the Pacific mission has been pushed back could also drain the debate of some of urgency: it will be difficult for the Pacific to arrive at any major decisions until the leaders report back on what they've heard and seen on the ground.

So while the territory's future is certain to be the subject of some hot discussions – particularly given that both French and New Caledonia will have representatives in Nuku'alofa this week — there may not be any seismic developments.

Climate politics

Pacific leaders have been adamant for years that climate change remains their most critical and pressing issue, and the topic will once again loom large at the PIF meeting in Tonga.

They'll be bolstered by the presence of one of the world's most high profile advocates for climate action, United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres, who will join the meeting earlier in the week.

The secretary general is slated to unveil the latest international research on sea level rise while he's in Tonga.

Mr Guterres may not want to single out Australia by name but as the only PIF member which is both a major fossil fuel exporter and a G20 member, the Albanese's government climate commitments are going to come under the microscope once again – particularly given it wants to host a United Nations conference of the parties (COP) meeting with the Pacific in just two years.

It's likely the secretary general will also try to hold the feet of wealthy countries to the fire on climate finance.

This is a key priority for the Pacific countries, which are already facing mounting climate costs and is deeply anxious about the way climate change could devastate communities and undermine food security in the near future.

Pacific leaders have been working to set up the Pacific Resilience Facility (or PRF) which is meant to provide relatively quick and easy access to climate finance which can help Pacific nations withstand climate shocks and natural disasters.

But so far the pledges (headlined by Australia's commitment of $100 million and a further $50 million promised by Saudi Arabia) remain a long way off the $500 million the Pacific wants to raise by 2026.

Over the last decade Pacific officials have been complaining – with good reason – that the surge in external interest from outside nations has been placing a heavy burden on (often understaffed) Pacific institutions and bureaucracies.

The Pacific Islands Forum is even contemplating setting a new "two tiered" structure for Dialogue Partners to help the region manage the long and growing list of countries which want to join.

If that happens, wealthier countries who want to secure a spot in the top tier could do worse than open their wallets for the PRF.

Pacific policing 

There's been surprisingly little attention paid to the Pacific Policing Initiative, given the breadth and ambition of the plan.

Australia has been at pains to cast the PPI as a "Pacific-led" initiative, even though Australian government money and intent were the driving forces behind it.

The Australian government has twin aims here. The first is to bolster Pacific policing, which is grappling with increasingly serious criminal challenges.

Second, to try and lock out China from Pacific policing, both by embedding Australia at the core of a new set of Pacific police institutions, and by eliminating security "gaps" which Beijing can then helpfully offer to fill.

Pacific police seem very receptive to the idea, and are eager for more resources to help them fight insidious threats like illegal fishing, arms trafficking, and international drug smuggling syndicates which wormed their tentacles deep into countries like Fiji and Tonga.

PIF foreign ministers essentially backed the initiative in Suva earlier this month, although a senior Solomon Islands official caused a brief kerfuffle when he complained it was being "steamrolled" through the Forum.

Still, most observers predict that leaders are likely to give the plan the green light in Nuku'alofa this week, granting Pacific police forces the political imprimatur they need to press on with implementation.

If that happens then Australian officials and police will no doubt celebrate a strategic victory; although the real challenge will be making sure the PPI delivers where it matters, and that it doesn't replicate or disrupt existing assistance and cooperation programs.

Sharp elbowed friends

Given the surge of external interest in the Pacific and the way Australia, China, the US and others are increasingly vying for strategic space, you can't rule out of the possibility of surprises this coming week in Tonga.

Australia turned plenty of heads at last year's PIF leaders meeting in Cook Islands when it signed the landmark Falepili Union with Tuvalu after lengthy and secretive negotiations.

Since then, Australia has been in quiet discussions with Nauru on potentially striking a similarly close arrangement, although the details of the talks are being closely guarded.

Australian government sources are playing down the chances of an imminent announcement at this leaders meeting.

But it's one to keep on watching.

Meanwhile Fiji's Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka has been busy pressing his own framework, the rather nebulous "Ocean of Peace", which conceptualises the whole Pacific as a vast zone of amity and non-aggression.

He and the Forum have promised to put more meat on the bones of this idea during this meeting, although it's not yet clear how it might shape Pacific or regional policy beyond that.

China has already thrown its weight behind the "Ocean of Peace" – something which drew cynical chuckles in Washington and Canberra given Beijing has sent an ever-growing number of warships out into the region while pressing harder than ever to strike new policing agreements with Pacific nations.

The diplomatic battle between China and Taiwan will continue to play out as well.

Taipei has only three diplomatic "allies" left in the Pacific, and it's now facing a new push from Beijing, which wants PIF members to strip Taiwan of its status as a forum development partner.

It's not just China pressing hard: this year the US delegation will be led by US Deputy Secretary of State, Kurt Campbell, who will officially open the new American Embassy in Nuku'alofa – just one of the 18 new missions which the Lowy Institute estimates have been opened in the Pacific since 2017.

As strategic competition grows more intense in the Pacific, PIF leaders' meetings are becoming increasingly crowded and contested spaces.

Nuku'alofa will be a busy city this week.