Posted: 2024-09-19 06:42:32

Australia is now home to more than 27 million people but policies over the last decade have failed to deliver the housing needed, an expert warns.

New data issued by the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows the national population grew by 2.3 per cent to 27.1 million in March this year.

It's an increase of about 615,300 people over the previous year, with net overseas migration driving about 83 per cent of this growth.

The "natural increase", which means births and deaths, accounted for 17 per cent of the growth.

All states and territories saw increases in population ranging from about 3.1 per cent in Western Australia to 0.4 per cent in Tasmania.

Australian National University demographer Liz Allen said hitting the 27 million population milestone was a moment to consider the challenges and opportunities facing the country in the future.

"Whenever we hit a population milestone, it gives us cause for pause to think about where we're headed and what kind of country we want to be," she said.

'Population panic' over migration is unnecessary, says demographer

Dr Allen said often when the country experiences a population increase, especially when it was driven largely by overseas migration, there was a tendency to panic.

"A type of population panic, we see this play out … we see particularly [some] politicians and commentators who perhaps are unhappy with the way the country is headed and blame the population for policy failures," she said.

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Dr Allen said it could affect social cohesion and potentially drive harmful rhetoric around migration when Australia's population change was problematised.

"If Australia didn't have immigration, we would not have the socio economic good standing that we have. Immigration keeps Australia economically and socially afloat," she said.

Australia's population increase has occurred quicker than some government projections. 

Back in 2002, the Howard government had estimated in the first inter-generational report that the national population would not reach 25.3 million people until 2042.

"Projections that would have been made in the first intergenerational report are only as good as the underlying assumptions and the shelf life of a population projection," Dr Allen said.

"Population projections become more and more inaccurate with time, and that generally occurs after five years of the estimate being created."

Experts say governments haven't planned for Australia's population growth

Australia's ageing population has been known for years, according to Dr Allen, but governments at all levels haven't invested in the appropriate infrastructure since the 1990s.

"That's not the fault of population, it's the problem of planning. We've seen over time in Australia, with successive governments at the federal, state and territory levels, an unwillingness to invest in big spending that exceeds the life of a political cycle," she said.

"We're now confronted with multiple crises, a housing crisis, an economic crisis and a climate crisis and our unwillingness to confront the fact that Australia is no longer a 1950s model of family and housing undermines our future."

University of New South Wales' Dr Chris Martin, who specialises in housing policy, said over the last decade governments have neglected housing policy despite the increase demand driven by population growth.

"[We have had] relatively modest, sort of eye-catching and unusual proposals being made by the government, but no sense of a plan to deal with the systemic issues that we have in our housing system," he said.

Dr Martin cited the example of the federal government's $10 billion Housing Australia Future Fund, describing it as a contrived funding vehicle for a relatively small amount of social affordable housing.

"When we could have done a much quicker and more effective boost to social housing just by going through the established channels," he said.

"Funding the state and territory housing authorities to build more and funding the community housing sector to build more."

Dr Martin said there needed to be long-term thinking on housing policy, highlighting the need to build up the social housing sector which he said had been underfunded for decades.

"If that sector was to meet all of our all of current unmet housing needs in the community, and the projected growth … over the next 20 years, the existing social housing system would need to triple in size," he said.

"That can't happen overnight."

Declining birth rate a sign of young people's uncertain future

There's been a decline in births with about a 1.7 per cent decrease from the previous year to March 2024.

Dr Allen said young people were facing difficult conditions, which affected their decisions about having children.

She highlighted issues surrounding housing affordability, climate change and cost of living, as some of the factors creating uncertainty for young people.

"The future is uncertain for young people, and they are carrying the burden of our future. They are carrying the economic burden of the nation, and it's simply too hard for young people to see a viable future," she said.

"We need to correct that. We need to change that fear of tomorrow."

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