The Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting an "average" cyclone season across Australia's Top End, but has warned of the potential for more severe storm systems.

The Bureau's long-term forecast, released this week, is predicting 11 tropical cyclones will form off Australia's coast, with four predicted to make landfall.

It says warmer-than-average ocean temperatures also make the likelihood of severe tropical cyclones higher than average.

If the average figures are maintained, it would see five cyclones forming off WA's Pilbara and Kimberley, four off the Queensland coast and three off the Northern Territory and Gulf of Carpenteria.

The 2023/24 season produced six severe tropical cyclones, with Cyclone Jasper causing hundreds of millions of dollars in damage across the Solomon Islands and Far North Queensland.

BOM North West manager Todd Smith said the stretch of coast from Broome to Exmouth in Western Australia is the most cyclone-prone area in the country, and that an average year can still be busy.

"During an average year, that we're expecting this year, we usually see about five cyclones off the north-west shelf," Mr Smith said.

"Two or three of those usually make it to severe cyclone, so that's category 3 or more, and two or three of them usually cross the coast.

"Last year was a pretty quiet season — we didn't have any coastal crossings in WA, which is pretty unusual." 

New warning system

This cyclone season will be the first with WA's revamped cyclone warning system, bringing it in line with the rest of the country.

It replaces the blue, yellow, red and all-clear alerts with three levels: advice, watch and act, and emergency.

Department of Fire and Emergency Services (DFES) Acting Kimberley Superintendent Matt Wakeling said it's important residents familiarise themselves with what has changed as they prepare for the upcoming cyclone season.

"Our volunteers and our staff will start their tour soon, we're going out to the remote communities, getting around the towns around the Kimberley and the Pilbara, making sure that they're prepared," he said.

"We're providing training information sessions to staff and and all of our stakeholders, especially around this new change to the warning system."

Be prepared

Mr Smith said despite the Broome-Derby region avoiding significant cyclone impacts for more than 20 years, preparation remains crucial.

"It probably goes back to Cyclone Rosita in April 2000 since we've had a severe cyclone impact in this part of the world, but they do impact this far north and it could be this year." 

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lincoln crossed the coast at Carnarvon in the Gascoyne region as a tropical low in February, bringing strong winds and heavy rain.

Mr Smith said over the past 50 years there has been a steady decline in the overall number of cyclones forming in Australia, but a higher proportion reach severe intensity.

"When they're making landfall we're seeing that they're producing a lot more rainfall now than what they did 20 or 30 years ago," he said.

"As the planet warms, the oceans warm, they inject more moisture and humidity into those cyclones, and that's why we're seeing both the intensification and also we're seeing that heavy rainfall when they cross the coast."

More rainfall 

BOM's seasonal outlook shows there is a higher chance of above-average rainfall this wet season.

"One of the climate aspects that's leading to a slightly wetter than normal outlook is the ocean temperatures off the North West shelf are very warm," Mr Smith said.

"They're a degree or two above average for this time of year and that's the fuel for thunderstorms and tropical cyclones."