Youth crime rates have plummeted in Queensland despite claims from both major parties that the state is in the grip of a youth crime crisis.
Both Labor and the LNP have claimed that Queensland's youth crime rate had increased and that harsher penalties would decrease it.
University of Queensland criminologist Renee Zahnow said there was "absolutely unanimous" academic consensus that both of these claims were false.
"There's no data to suggest that the rates of youth crime are spiralling out of control in Queensland or indeed anywhere in Australia," Associate Professor Zahnow said.
"Whilst the population has continued to grow we've actually seen the number of offences stay the same or decrease in certain areas."
She said the false claims were fuelled by sensationalist news outlets, social media platforms, and political opportunism.
Reclassification skews perception of rise
Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed that Queensland's youth crime rate had halved across the past 14 years.
Data from the Queensland Police Service, the Queensland Statistician's Office, and the Australian Institute of Criminology also demonstrated clear downward trends.
Youth crime rates have fallen in every single state and territory, including Queensland, which remains middle of the pack with the fourth highest rate.
In 2022, Queensland youth crime hit the lowest rates in recorded history and has remained roughly steady ever since.
The Queensland Statistician's Office notes that the state's youth crime rates may still be inflated due to the recent deployment of rapid response squads targeting young people.
But crime in general has fallen, with Queensland Police Service data showing falling crime rates in almost all categories of crime.
Notable exceptions include rape, domestic violence, and assault which have all seen significant increases.
However Associate Professor Zahnow said the increase in rape and domestic violence data was most likely due to increased awareness, reporting, and enforcement.
She said the increase in assault data was driven in part by changes to the way assault was classified under Queensland law.
In 2016, Queensland passed new laws which meant violence against a partner was classified both as an assault as well as domestic violence.
Choking, suffocation, or strangulation in a domestic setting became stand-alone offences.
Queensland Statistician's Office data shows 29 per cent of violence was committed by a stranger, with most done by a partner, family member, or acquaintance.
'The big lie'
The LNP has promised to deliver harsher penalties to youth offenders with the slogan "adult crime, adult time" becoming the centrepiece of its election campaign.
Opposition leader David Crisafulli has promised to bring in "reset camps" for young offenders and ditch "detention as a last resort" protections in Queensland law.
Labor has watered down detention as a last resort protections, toughened youth bail laws, promised to build more youth detention centres, and fund more metal detectors.
The LNP did not respond to the ABC's requests for comment.
Ross Homel says Queensland's tough-on-crime strategy will make youth crime worse. (ABC News: Michael Lloyd)
Griffith University criminologist Ross Homel said both major parties were perpetrating "the big lie" that tougher penalties would reduce youth crime rates.
He said the opposite has been repeatedly demonstrated through twin studies, randomised controlled trials, natural experiments, and longitudinal studies.
"Criminal justice processing of juveniles is itself a cause of future offending. It doesn't make the community safer," he said.
"This is why I refer to the policies of both parties as being based on the big lie — it's not true, and it's not based on the overwhelming body of evidence."
He said the popular punishment-based policy approach failed to address the underlying causes of youth crime.
Professor Homel said youth crime was driven by factors such as foetal alcohol syndrome, neurodevelopmental disability, sexual or physical violence, poverty, and low education.
He said there was a wrong perception that judges were becoming more lenient over time when the opposite was true.
Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed the country's imprisonment rate had increased to record highs, especially among prisoners who had not yet received a sentence.
The number of unsentenced prisoners who had been refused bail doubled in ten years from 7,375 in 2013 to 15,937 in 2023 — the highest in history.
Professor Homel said Queensland's ever-tightening laws meant more children were being kept behind bars without a sentence.
"We are routinely violating the fundamental rights of these children. We do it cheerfully by changing the law in Queensland and lots of people applaud," Professor Homel said.
"I'm going to invest all my remaining time, energy, and moral passion I can summon to work on early prevention, working with communities rather than doing things to them.
"I understand why some victims of crime feel so strongly about this, but what we have to do is stay calm and look at the best evidence."
Labor youth justice minister Di Farmer said her party's youth crime policy was evidence-based.
"Community safety is the Miles Labor government's absolute priority, that's why we are investing in programs that have been evaluated and are proven to increase community safety and reduce youth offending, leading to fewer victims of crime," she said.
"We understand the impact and trauma crime has on people's lives. One victim or one offence is one too many.
"We'll continue to take the advice of the experts on prevention, intervention, and detention strategies."