In March 2022, then-premier Peter Gutwein announced an ambitious target for Homes Tasmania.
"Over the next decade it will be tasked with building and acquiring an additional 6,500 homes and units on top of our current target of 3,500," Mr Gutwein said.
"This leads to a total of 10,000 new dwellings by 2032."
What homes would make up that number has been the source of speculation, and it has been revealed that vacant lots and existing rentals acquired by Homes Tasmania will be counted towards it.
Two and a half years into the project, Homes Tasmania said 3,772 "homes" had been completed, with funding locked in for another 809.
Concept planning from Homes Tasmania shows how the agency plans to meet the goal and what the final breakdown will be.
The largest proportion of the 10,000 homes will be made up of helping households into "affordable home ownership" through the MyHome program, which is projected to account for 3,750 "homes" in total and more than half of the remaining "homes".
Another 1,084 of the "homes" will not include a house. Instead, they will be sold as affordable residential land lots, with a requirement for the new owner to begin construction in two years.
Just over 3,000 of the 10,000 total homes would be social homes and supported accommodation, with 119 crisis accommodation spots.
Households helped into affordable rentals through government programs will also be counted as new homes. ( ABC News: Maren Preuss )
Households helped into affordable rentals through the Private Rental Incentive Scheme and Family Violence Rapid Rehousing account for another 1,891 "homes".
Of the social housing still to be delivered under the concept plan, there are only 1,333 new social homes that are yet to be completed or that are still in the pipeline.
At the end of August, Tasmania's social housing wait list was 4,792 applicants long.
Under the concept plan, there is also no new crisis accommodation to be delivered.
A Homes Tasmania spokesperson said delivery of the 10,000 homes would include "homelessness accommodation, supported accommodation, social housing, affordable private rentals, release of affordable land parcels, and affordable home ownership assistance".
"There will be movements in these projects over the coming years as projects to reflect the established, delayed and completed projects," the spokesperson said.
The Tasmanian Greens say the target for 10,000 new homes by 2032 has not been backed up with the investment needed to deliver it. (ABC News: Luke Bowden)
Counting rules described as ludicrous
Tasmanian Greens housing spokesperson Vica Bayley said the decision to include land and households temporarily helped through private rental incentives in the 10,000 target was "ludicrous".
"The problem we have consistently raised is that this target has never been backed up by the investment needed to achieve it," Mr Bayley said.
"This is more about Liberal politicians being able to say they're doing something than it is about actually doing it."
Of the 664 homes purchased through MyHome so far, a little more than 400 are existing homes, but they are still counted as new dwellings.
Housing Minister Felix Ellis said the government was "on track" to meet the goal of delivering 10,000 homes.
"When the Tasmanian government released the Tasmanian Housing Strategy Action Plan 2023-2027, the counting rules were provided for public consultation and comment," he said.
Housing Minister Felix Ellis says the government is "on track" to reach its housing target. (ABC News: Maren Preuss)
Homes Tasmania 'leveraging' its balance sheet
The 10,000 homes plan was costed at $1.5 billion, but with the cost of building rising, that estimate has been met with scepticism.
Homes Tasmania documents obtained by the ABC show preliminary costings for the 10,000 homes and for meeting the concept plan.
Total expenditure up until 2032 is estimated at $4.3 billion, with the agency expecting income of $2.5 billion in the same period.
It leaves a $1.8 billion hole that will be met through borrowings.
Homes Tasmania said the costing related to earlier plans to reach the goal, but has not provided the new figures.
Housing Minister Felix Ellis told a parliamentary hearing in July that Homes Tasmania had a "nation-leading model".
"We are leveraging our balance sheet in a better way and that's why it's regarded as a nation-leading framework," Mr Ellis said.
Homes Tasmania is allowed to borrow from the Tasmanian Public Finance Corporation (TASCORP) or from other groups as approved by the treasurer.
The total of all amounts borrowed during a financial year is not to exceed the maximum amount determined by the treasurer, and must be approved by TASCORP.
The Tasmanian government is currently paying the interest for Homes Tasmania's borrowings, and also provides some funding through the budget.
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