Australia:
Wed: CPI indicator (Oct), Construction work done (Q3)
Thu: Business investment/ Private capex (Q3), RBA speech, Governor Bullock
Fri: Private sector credit (Oct)
International:
Tue: US – Fed meeting minutes (Nov), Home prices (Sep), New home sales (Oct), Consumer confidence (Nov)
Wed: NZ – RBNZ rates decision
US- GDP (Q3), PCE inflation (Oct), Durable goods orders (Oct), Personal income & spending (Oct)
Thu: US – Thanksgiving Day market holiday
Fri: EU – CPI (Nov)
Sat: CH — PMIs
It is another quietish week data-wise, with local market likely to focus on the October inflation outcomes (Wednesday).
Headline inflation is likely to remain parked at around 2.1% YoY, which is towards the bottom of the RBA's target band, however the more important core inflation figure – certainly more important to the RBA – is likely to see "trimmed mean" CPI tick up from 3.2% to 3.4% as some more favourable price movements from a year ago drop out of the survey.
Also of interest will be RBA Governor Michele Bullock's speech (Thursday) the day after the inflation data.
The CBA she will have the opportunity to clarify if at least two 'good' quarterly CPI prints are a necessary pre-condition to cutting interest rates.
"If the governor does confirm this, then the RBA will have ruled out any rate cuts until at least May 2025," CBA economist Steven Wu said.
The first of the September quarter GDP partials will be released with quarterly construction work (Wednesday) and business investment/capital investment (Thursday) are expected to show moderate rises after fairly tepid outcomes in June quarter.
Off to side of the National Accounts, but very important nonetheless, the ABS will publish data on Indigenous "Closing the Gap" surveys focussing particularly on health and employment outcomes (Tuesday).
The ABS will also publish its first survey on the contribution of unpaid care to the economy (Friday) and update its annual look Australia's energy generation and usage (Thursday).
Overseas, the US will be dominated by Thursday's annual turkey cull on Thanksgiving, which should keep things pretty quiet (except in the turkey community).
However, Q3 GDP (Wednesday) will garner more than a cursory glance even though the economy is forecast to maintain growth at around 2.8%.
Core PCE (Thursday, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation), is expected to remain parked at 0.2% over the month.
Over in New Zealand, the RBNZ is again expected to swing the axe on its official rate setting, lopping another 50bps off to 4.25%, a tad lower than the RBA 4.35% setting.