Most Australians don't feel like they're ahead financially as the year draws to a close. And they give little credit to the federal government for helping them out.
New research for the ABC's Q+A reveals enduring cost-of-living stress in most households, despite inflation continuing to ease across the economy.
Australians also seem spooked by Donald Trump's return to the White House, with a marked shift in sentiment for the United States alliance.
Just over half — 55 per cent — feel positive looking ahead to 2025, a national weighted poll of 1,514 people by YouGov shows.
And fewer than four in 10 Australians say they're going forward financially.
A quarter feel like they're going backwards, while 38 per cent say they're "barely getting by". Labor voters (40 per cent) are struggling more than those who last voted for the Coalition (34 per cent).
The annual inflation rate fell to 2.8 per cent in the September quarter — the lowest in three and a half years.
Petrol and energy costs have fallen significantly thanks to lower oil prices and government power bill rebates, but prices of most goods and services continue to rise.
Asked if they feel better off than this time last year, just two in 10 respondents said yes. Most believe they're worse off (42 per cent) or about the same (37 per cent).
'What have you done for me?'
Treasurer Jim Chalmers points to tax cuts, pay rises in care workforces and energy rebates as evidence the government is doing what it can to help struggling households.
But his admission a fortnight ago that "we've got a lot of ground to make up" is reflected in the Q+A/YouGov polling — and illustrates the political fight ahead for Labor to retain power in next year's election.
An overwhelming majority of Australians — 77 per cent — couldn't think of one thing the government had done in the last two years to make them financially better off.
Of the 23 per cent who could, energy bill rebates and tax cuts were the policies of financial assistance most cited.
While the government is hopeful the Reserve Bank will soon begin cutting interest rates, most Australians — 77 per cent — say it won't change their vote.
The RBA has dampened expectations of a rate cut in February, declaring last week it wants "more than one good quarterly inflation outcome to be confident that such a decline in inflation was sustainable".
If rates stay on hold in February, that likely leaves just one RBA meeting in late March before a federal election that must be held by May.
Reassessment of foreign ties
In a week when Prime Minister Anthony Albanese embraced Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit, and Foreign Minister Penny Wong expressed "strong objections" to the jailing of pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong, most Australians support close ties with our biggest trading partner.
The Q+A/YouGov survey — conducted over a week ending last Thursday — found a little over half of respondents said a positive relationship with China was "very important", compared to 42 per cent who said the relationship was no more important than any other country.
Views on the relationship with the United States are more divided and appear to have shifted since the election of Donald Trump as president.
A majority of Australians — 55 per cent — say America is not a reliable partner and we should be building greater sovereignty. It's a majority view across all demographic groups polled.
Asked by YouGov in May whether the election of Trump should prompt a more independent defence and national security capacity, just 39 per cent agreed.
The prime minister said last week he was "not getting ahead of where the Trump administration might go" and would "wait and see how that plays out".
"Where there's changes, there's also the potential for opportunity," Anthony Albanese said.
Australia's former ambassador to China, Geoff Raby, and former British ambassador George Brandis join the Q+A panel tonight, along with NSW Labor MP Jason Yat–sen Li and economist Jo Masters.
Watch Q+A tonight at 9.45pm on ABC TV and ABC iview.