If you think Sydney is already full, it's going to get more crowded in the next 10 years.
NSW will have nearly 1 million more people by 2034, with more than 650,000 of them living in Sydney, according to the latest NSW population projections.
Greater Sydney will grow to a city of 5.9 million people, a 13 per cent increase in 10 years, and the state will be home to 9.4 million.
By 2041, the New South Wales population will surpass 10 million.
Based on an ABC analysis, NSW will need four large new hospitals, 436 new primary schools and 81 new high schools by 2034 if it is to maintain the same service levels available now.
In Sydney, there will be half a million more cars on the roads and 72,000 more passengers on trains each day.
A spokesperson for the planning department said that the Urban Development Program brings together government agencies, councils, utility agencies and the development industry to align plans for housing and coordinate and deliver infrastructure.
Here is where all those extra people are projected to live and what the state might look like in 10 years to accommodate them.
Every corner of Sydney will have more people by 2034
This is how many people will be living in your area in 10 years' time.
You can use the table to search and see how your suburb is predicted to change — if your area doesn't come up, try one nearby.
The map below visualises the predicted population changes from the dataset to show the changing face of Sydney.
Darker areas are expected to experience the greatest density increases.
Areas in the west and south-west of Sydney, like Austral-Greendale (33,000 more people, 133 per cent) and Box Hill-Nelson (27,000 more people, 110 per cent), will see the now-low density of people per square kilometre more than double by 2034.
The established suburbs around the harbour will also become more populated with eastern Sydney local government areas (LGA) set to have 200,000 more people in 10 years, a 9 per cent uplift.
Gordon-Killara will have 32 per cent more people as the population increases from around 22,000 to around 30,000, causing the density to increase from around 1,900 to 2,500 people per square km.
The area contains Gordon and Killara train stations, which are earmarked for the NSW government's new Transport Orientated Development (TOD) Program, which will see thousands more homes built around train stations.
Planning controls have been introduced to support the density of the TOD locations, a planning department spokesperson said.
The northern part of the Sydney CBD around Millers Point will have 23 per cent more people as the population increases from around 11,500 to more than 14,000 people, causing the density to go from around 3,500 to 4,400 people per square km.
In regional NSW, the key growth areas will be the Maitland LGA in the Hunter Valley (23,000, 24 per cent) and Shellharbour on the south coast (16,500, 20 per cent), though some regional LGAs are expected to lose population over the next 10 years, including Bourke (-5 per cent) Brewarrina (-5 per cent) and Walgett (-4 per cent).
The map below visualises the predicted population changes across the state.
Higher density needs different housing solutions
As global cities go, Australia's capitals are low density.
The uplift in Sydney's population will only take it from 429 to 520 people per square km, far below London, Toronto and Berlin, which all have densities above 4,300 people per square km.
Sydney in 2034 will have a similar population and density as Kyoto in Japan and the European cities of Rome, Barcelona and Madrid.
Chris Pettit, director of the City Futures Research Centre at the University of NSW, said Sydney would need to master medium density housing to accommodate the future population, as European cities like Barcelona have done.
"You've got that opportunity to have shared parks and shared infrastructure and maximising the use of public space and having that connected to housing solutions which are fit for purpose — well-made houses with good amenity," he said.
Chris Pettit says Sydney needs to master medium density housing. (Supplied)
The government's TOD plan aims to deliver tens of thousands of homes around more than 30 transport hubs.
Reforms now allow townhouses, terraces and two-storey apartment blocks to be built in low-density zones across the city.
The problem is that much of the land in areas where Sydney needs medium-density housing is in private hands, which Professor Pettit said made it hard to replicate solutions like Barcelona's superblocks.
Barcelona's superblocks restrict traffic in minor streets to allow them to become public spaces. (Unsplash: Logan Armstrong)
These are 400-metre-square small neighbourhoods in Barcelona designed to recover space for the community, move towards sustainable transport and encourage social cohesion.
Inner streets are blocked to traffic, to become public spaces for a range of uses.
Another idea Professor Pettit said should be taken from Europe and Canada and implemented in Sydney is strata complexes that have shared green space that is designed to be child-friendly.
"That's one of the things we struggle with here with our strata laws and complexes, the ability for cities, for these apartments to really meet the needs of families and children," he said.
A children's playground in the common courtyard at the First Avenue Housing Co-op in Vancouver. (Yuri Artibise)
A 2020 report by Sydney architect Natalia Krysiak highlighted that, unlike London, Toronto and Vancouver, Sydney has no planning policy requiring minimum place space requirements in multi-unit developments.
"Many of us are still under the impression that families with children neither belong nor desire to belong in higher-density housing," Ms Krysiak noted.
Getting people out of their cars
An artist's impression of Bradfield City near the new Western Sydney Airport, which is being planned to prioritise non-car modes of transport. (AAP: NSW government)
Another way in which Sydney differs from European cities is that it followed American cities and became a car city.
"We actually ripped out extensive networks of trams and favoured highways and freeways and we're now left with the legacy of toll roads," Professor Pettit said.
Patrick Harris from the Centre for Health Equity Training at the University of NSW said the lack of public transport, particularly in Western Sydney, impacted on resident's health.
"What we'd like to see from a health perspective is much more emphasis on public transport and what we call active transport, which is transport that basically takes you out of your car and means you move around a lot more," he said.
Artist's impression of the new Bradfield City, which will have a network of cycleways for bikes, e-bikes and e-scooters. (Supplied: NSW government)
He said implementing active transport was a challenge for a city like Sydney where the environment "is literally cemented in".
"So the challenge is, how do you change that, that built environment to be more focused on things to encourage a healthy population is quite a challenging thing to do."
Active transport is defined in the NSW government's future transport strategy as transport that requires physical effort, like walking, cycling and e-bikes and e-scooters.
Whether Sydney can manage its growth depends on how fast its future residents can access jobs, housing, healthcare and social connections, according to Professor Pettit.
"Our cities have reached that densification point where we need to start looking at Sydney's policy of a 30-minute city."
Bradfield City, being planned near the new Western Sydney Airport, will be Sydney's first 30-minute city.
It will have 10,000 homes and is being designed to prioritise active transport, with local streets allowing only active transport and rapid buses.