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So, it finally happened.
After shadow boxing for months about the impact of Brexit, Nicola Sturgeon has called for what she has wanted all along — an independent Scotland.
She is painting herself as a politician backed into a corner by the United Kingdom Government that is refusing to listen to her country's concerns about Britain's European Union exit.
But in reality, the Scottish National Party was always heading in this direction.
The first step on the long road towards a second referendum, also known as "indyref2", will be taken next week, when the pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament seeks a "Section 30 order" — the mechanism required for the vote to take place.
Then it is over to the Prime Minister who has the ultimate say.
Will Theresa May grant a new referendum?
She is furiously opposed and has repeatedly told Ms Sturgeon to focus on her day job — running public services in Scotland.
But saying no outright could be a damaging political move or even foster more nationalist sentiment, so ultimately this could all boil down to a tussle over timing.
Ms Sturgeon wants a vote between the British autumn next year and the spring of 2019, when the outline of the UK's Brexit deal will be clearer.
She hopes to keep Scotland in the EU or at least with access to the bloc's single market because the country voted to remain 62 per cent to 38 per cent last year.
On the other hand, Ms May will not want any referendum before a Brexit deal is completely done and dusted — she will not want to fight Brussels and the pro-independence forces in Scotland at the same time.
If a vote is held after the UK leaves the EU, then Scotland would have to apply to get back in.
It is hard to see how Spain, which has long grappled with independence issues in the Basque region, will be particularly pleased by that proposal.
Many believe the first Scottish independence campaign in 2014, which was defeated 55 per cent to 45 per cent, failed due to the inability of the those in favour to sell the economic case for the country going it alone.
If anything, analysts believe that case is weaker now due to the big drop in oil prices.
Opinion polls, in so far as they are reliable, suggest things are close with the status quo in front by a few percentage points.
Spending too much time studying them is probably pointless because there is so much uncertainty about when and if the vote will happen but that is what everyone is doing — there is simply so much at stake.
If Ms Sturgeon loses the referendum her career is probably doomed and her independence cause derailed for decades.
But if Ms Sturgeon wins, then Ms May will be known as the Prime Minister who not only oversaw Brexit but also the break-up of the UK.
That is not a legacy the Tory leader wants to leave.
Topics: government-and-politics, federal-government, world-politics, scotland, united-kingdom
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