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Posted: 2017-05-22 06:53:56

Updated May 22, 2017 22:34:09

It's one of the world's longest-running conflicts.

Barriers to peace in the West Bank

  • The Palestinians argue they have already made the largest concession, recognising Israel's right to exist and conceding 78 per cent of their land during the 1993 Oslo accords
  • Israel has argued it wants the Palestinians to recognise Israel as an official Jewish state and to end all violence before negotiations can restart

Peace between the Palestinians and the Israelis has eluded every single American president, but Donald Trump's self-belief in his own expertise as a salesman has him promising to be the one to make the "ultimate" deal in the Holy Land.

"I really believe that we can achieve a deal here," the President said in comments published in an Israeli newspaper on Friday. "We have a good chance to get the deal done."

On the campaign trail, Mr Trump said he would be the "most pro-Israel" president ever — promising he would recognise Israel's claim to Jerusalem as its capital by moving the American embassy there from Tel Aviv and refraining from criticising illegal Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank.

Early indications suggested he would be true to his word.

Mr Trump appointed his son-in-law and senior adviser Jared Kushner, who has close ties to a religious West Bank settlement, as a peace envoy to the Middle East.

He then picked David Freidman to be the new US ambassador to Israel, a man with a long history as a fundraiser for the settlement movement.

But five months into his presidency, Mr Trump's reluctance to follow through on his pledge to move the embassy and his pronouncement that he will be the one to make the "ultimate" peace deal has left some Israelis increasingly wary of the unpredictable new American President.

"It's just not very clear what he's going to do," 24-year-old Yeshiva student Shlomo said outside Jerusalem's old city on Sunday.

"Before the election he seemed really right wing!"

In Palestinian East Jerusalem, there is also confusion over whether the President will be a friend or a foe.

"It's nice he's coming to Jerusalem and also going to Bethlehem," 22-year-old Dana Hamashnah said.

"But he doesn't seem to like Arabs much."

Trump's 'ignorance' an opportunity and threat

Nathan Thrall, an analyst with the International Crisis Group in Jerusalem, said the fact Mr Trump was so unconventional made both Israeli and Palestinian leaders extremely nervous.

"Both are very intent not to be the one to say 'no' to him, not to present themselves as the obstacle to achieving what genuinely seems to be a real priority for him," Mr Thrall said.

And while the President has appeared to prioritise the issue, he has not yet put forward a concrete plan on how this "ultimate" deal will be achieved.

Mr Trump's position on controversial issues such as illegal Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank is also now unclear, despite earlier indications his administration would not see them as much as a barrier to peace as President Obama's administration did.

"There is so much ignorance inside the Trump administration about the basics of this conflict that it presents both an opportunity but also a threat to Israeli and Palestinian leaders," Mr Thrall said.

"It's possible he could behave radically differently than his predecessors."

Mr Trall argued that despite a recent spate of knife attacks and car rammings by Palestinians against Israeli civilians, the status quo suited Israel more than it did the Palestinians.

"The status quo is very maintainable for Israel. As you can see, we are in the 50th year of the Israeli occupation of the West Bank," the analyst said.

"People hear a lot of noise about boycott, divestments and sanctions and so forth, but no average Israeli is really feeling it. The Israeli soccer teams are still playing in the European leagues. Banks are still having dealing with settlements. It's just not that costly."

For years, the international consensus for a two-state solution has been based on the idea of demilitarised Palestinian state within the 1967 borders, with Jerusalem as its capital.

Mr Thrall said right now, a peace deal based on those parameters posed a greater risk for Israeli leaders than just leaving things the way they are.

"They would lose security control over all of the West Bank. They would have to evacuate settlements. They will face enormous political upheaval at home," Mr Thrall said.

The analyst argued the discrepancy in power between Palestinians and Israelis was so great that the Palestinians on their own could not create "costs" that were great enough for Israel to withdraw from all of the West Bank.

"The most frightening thing for [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu is the idea that Trump could exercise real US pressure, real leverage to get what he calls the ultimate deal, " Mr Thrall said.

Trump seeking to restrain violence, new settlements

Mr Trump has already indicated what is on his wish list during his visit to Jerusalem and Bethlehem this week.

His officials say he will remind the Israeli Government to restrain the construction of settlements and to take new steps to improve the Palestinian economy.

With the Palestinians, Mr Trump is tipped to ask President Mahmoud Abbas to try to put an end to incitement and violence against Israel and to stop making financial payments to the families of Palestinians who are killed while carrying out terror attacks on Israelis.

Analysts say moving the US embassy to Jerusalem is not among the issues likely to be high on the agenda during Mr Trump's scheduled 27 hours on the ground in the Holy Land.

"My strong suspicion is that Prime Minister Netanyahu doesn't want the embassy move to happen," Mr Thrall said.

"I think he's been told by members of the security establishment in Israel that it will create problems and create unrest on the ground and they don't want that.

"And it's certainly true that if the US were to move the embassy, it would be much more difficult for the US to start negotiations and to get Arab states to support it as they are trying to now and to bring the Palestinians to the table."

Topics: territorial-disputes, donald-trump, world-politics, unrest-conflict-and-war, israel, palestinian-territory-occupied

First posted May 22, 2017 16:53:56

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