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Posted: 2017-06-06 04:47:20

Ding, ding, ding - what's that sound? It's another bell being rung on the Aussie housing market, UBS analysts say.

The decision by Bendigo & Adelaide Bank to exclude mark-to-market changes in the value of properties associated with its Homesafe product "is appropriate", the analysts say, "but the timing is unusual".

As UBS explains, Homesafe is a home equity release product, where senior citizens effectively sell a stake of their homes, say 10 per cent, in return for an upfront cash payment to help fund their retirement. Bendigo's ownership stake in the house then rises over time (to reflect funding costs) with a gain/loss crystalised when the home is sold, such as when the customer downsizes or dies.

Previously the regional lender marked-to-market its unrealised Homesafe positions through "cash earnings", reflecting movements in Melbourne and Sydney house prices. Now, only realised gains and losses will be recognised.

The stock fell 4.4 pe cent on the news yesterday.

But back to that "unusual timing" comment, and the UBS analysts write:

"BEN has been booking substantial Homesafe mark-to-market gains (and very occasional losses) through its cash earnings since 2007. It is only now as Sydney and Melbourne house prices are in bubble territory and house prices have begun to slip in recent weeks that BEN has changed its policy."

Hence, their question: has Bendigo rung the bell on housing?

UBS has form on the topic. In late April the broker's economists "called the top" for property.

"While the historical trigger for a housing downturn [of RBA hikes] is missing, mortgage rates are rising, and sentiment of home buying collapsed to a record low," they wrote then in a note to clients.

"Looking ahead price growth has likely now peaked, and we see a moderation ahead amid record supply and poor housing affordability.

"We are 'calling the top', but stick to our forecasts for commencements to 'correct but not collapse'."

UBS has a "sell" rating on Bendigo's stock, with a price target of $10, unchanged. The shares are 2.8 per cent lower at $10.41.

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