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Posted: 2017-06-06 15:45:40

Everything about terrorism is desperate, and the latest wave of attacks represents a new phase of great desperation.

The terrorists called themselves Islamic State because the creation of an Islamic state or a 'caliphate' is central to their prophecy.

UK police name two London attackers

One of two men named by British police was previously known to them and had appeared in a Channel Four documentary called 'The Jihadis Next Door'.

The group's appeal rests on its prophecy that the battle of the end of days is at hand. But they can't have their battle unless they have their caliphate – the Islamic redeemer, the Mahdi, won't appear to lead the faithful unless they have one.

"This is a duty upon the Muslims," said the self-proclaimed caliph, Abu Bakr Baghdadi in 2014, "a duty that has been lost for centuries".

The big problem is that Baghdadi is on the cusp of losing his caliphate. His stronghold in Iraq, the city of Mosul, has all but fallen and their capital in Syria, Raqqa, is besieged. The caliphate will likely be history within months.

How can you have Islamic State when it has no state?Which is why the desperadoes of Daesh are bringing their fight to us.

Did you see the news of the militant squads that abruptly attacked the Philippine town of Marawi two weeks ago? The attack "marks a precarious stage in the pivot of ISIS to the east," according to Richard Heydarian of Manila's De La Salle University.

He described the situation in the insurgency-racked island of Mindanao as a "perfect storm" where competing groups of south-east Asian Islamists are seeking the funds and the fighters and mandate of Daesh to create a new caliphate.

Singapore's Defence Minister, Ng Eng, says it "if not addressed adequately, it can prove a pulling ground for would-be jihadists who can launch attacks from there."

He said that if the terrorists entrenched themselves, "it would pose decades of problems" for the cities of south-east Asia. The Maute group is still holding the town against the best efforts of the Philippines army. But the greatest prize for south-east Asian fundamentalists would be Indonesia.

Indonesia's Defence Minister Ryamizard Ryacudu says that there are an estimated 1000 Daesh sympathisers in Indonesia. "But in a world overwhelmed by fear, please try to imagine – Indonesia is the biggest Muslim country in the world, we have 250 million people, 200 million [of them are] Muslim.

"Suppose 0.5 per cent of Indonesians become ISIS sympathisers. That's one million people. It's a terrible number."

"It gets worse: According to survey data," says the former general, "96 per cent of Indonesians reject the extremist ideology.

However, about four per cent choose not to give sufficient answer. Eight million people."

This is why, he says, "Indonesia is the prime target for the extremist recruiters". And why "we have to solve the root of the problem."

The terrorists' salafi-jihadi ideology, like money, is fungible. If one outlet for the ideology is blocked, it finds another. The West was satisfied with the defeat of Al Qaeda, and initially failed to notice that its work was taken up by Daesh.

Even as Daesh is being smashed, other vessels are forming to carry on its malevolent mission. The ideology, the work, the mission will live on with new leaders and new energy. In the West, in south-east Asia, in any part of the planet that presents an opportunity.

Why? Because it serves a real need: "What the Middle East needs right now is a secular force that dreams a secular dream. At the moment, the only 'dream' is the caliphate," writes the chair of the Quilliam think tank, Maajid Nawaz, a reformed extremist who went on to advise British prime ministers on counterterrorism.

But until that happens, the disaffected will continue to be drawn to the ideology of Islamist fundamentalism. And some power-seeking clique, Daesh or another, will be happy to embrace them.

This is what Indonesia's Ryacucu meant by "the root of the problem". It is the power of an ideology, the dream of the caliphate.

"Coercion will contribute 1 per cent of solving the basis terrorism – 99 per cent will be soft power and the co-operation of the people."

We are in a phase-change of fundamentalism and need to brace for a long, complex civilisational effort. Terrorism is a tool of the weak against the strong.

It succeeds by terrifying us into turning our own strength against ourselves.

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