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Posted: 2017-07-24 05:26:07

Investors are warily eyeing the sudden strength of the Australian dollar, but only expect a material affect on earnings if its strength is sustained. 

The local currency is holding near two-year highs, after rallying 5 per cent in the last fortnight, thanks to the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary statement on the macro outlook for Australia which prompted traders to double down on bets that the RBA's next rate move will be to hike rates later in 2018.

The Australian dollar was fetching US79.23¢ on Monday afternoon. 

There's some direct impact from the dollar's rise with shares in Macquarie and Janus Henderson, money managers who generate earnings offshore, drifting lower in line with the currency's advance.

However, fund managers are not re-organising their portfolios to accommodate the higher dollar just yet. 

"The dollar is definitely on the watchlist, but it's not something that's forcing me to change my numbers now," said Andrew Martin, portfolio manager at Alphinity Investment Management. 

"The stocks have moved around a bit, like they always do, and where the dollar is right now would have a meaningful impact on earnings, but it would have to sit there for a while."

US-dollar earners like Amcor, CSL Limited, ResMed and Crown Limited have also come off, as the US dollar slumped following Janet Yellen's recent dovish comments and traders reconsidered the euphoria that accompanied Donald Trump's pro-growth rhetoric. 

Some companies have started to warn about the potential impact of a higher currency on their earnings, with Murray Goulburn stating that if the Australian dollar keeps rising in value over its full financial year, then the prospect of the firm achieving the top of its earnings range - $5.50, may become uncertain.

"I expect earnings season will be fairly choppy, stocks have been moving pretty aggressively up or down in response to trading updates," says Omkar Joshi, portfolio manager at Regal Funds Management.

"If the dollar goes to the mid-80s and stays there, then that would certainly become an issue, but for now it's okay."

Significant importers generally enjoy the benefits of a stronger Aussie dollar, and retailers like JB Hi-Fi have experienced a moderate upift. Wholesale importers and distributors like Lifehealthcare Group and Dicker Data are also tracking higher, alongside the Australian dollar. 

Resources companies are likely to be the most significant re-raters should the currency stay persistently high.

"The obvious point is that, although a higher Australian dollar generally leads to earnings downgrades, the resources sector is actually broadly positively correlated to the Aussie," says Ben Cleary, portfolio manager at Tribeca Investment Partners. 

"Over 5 or 20 years, the relationship between the commodity producer index and the Aussie holds."

There are several schools of thought driving what that relationship consists of, whether it is higher iron ore prices that drive better terms of trade which boosts the Aussie or whether a weakening US dollar drives more emerging market risk sentiment which then flows through to resource companies via multiple expansion. ​

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