The housing market has peaked and could crash if the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raises rates too drastically or too quickly, according to researchers at UBS, the Swiss global financial services company.

Property prices in Australia have skyrocketed, and the most recent government data marked growth in residential property prices at 10.2% year-on-year for the March quarter.

In a note released on Monday, UBS economist George Tharenou said any rash interest rate action from the Reserve Bank could trigger a crash.

“We still see rates on hold in the coming year, amid macro-prudential tightening on credit growth and interest-only loans,” he said. “Hence, we still see a correction, but not a collapse, but if the RBA hikes too early or too much (as flagged by its hawkish minutes), it risks triggering a crash.”

Housing starts dropped by 19% in the first quarter and May’s mortgage approvals slide 20%.

After a five-year-long boom, the cost of the average Australian home now sits at $669,700, with Tharenou warning that growth was starting to slow.

“Despite weaker activity, house prices just keep booming with still strong growth of 10% y/y in June. However, this is unsustainably 4-5 times faster than income,” he said. “Looking ahead, we still see price growth slowing to 7% y/y in 2017 and 0-3% in 2018, amid record supply and poor affordability.”
 

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