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Posted: 2018-04-11 00:45:03

Updated April 11, 2018 11:26:14

With the Middle East braced once again for the possibility of American-led military action in Syria, all eyes are on the Trump administration's next move.

US President Donald Trump's decision will have implications well beyond what happens over the next few days.

Debate is intensifying over a possible strike against Syria following the alleged chemical weapons attack on the rebel-held Eastern Ghouta town of Douma on the weekend.

From the outset, Russia dismissed the incident as a fabrication, and now it says it has proof.

"Our military, radiological, biological, chemical unit was on site with the alleged chemical accident and it confirmed that there was no chemical substances found on the ground," Russia's ambassador to the United Nations, Vassily Nebenzia, said.

But France says it is prepared to strike Syria's chemical facilities and its decision will not depend on the discussions underway at the UN.

White House spokeswoman Sarah Huckabee Sanders says the United States holds Syria as well as its allies, Russia and Iran, responsible.

"Russia has betrayed its obligations to guarantee the end of the Syrian regime's chemical weapons program," Ms Huckabee Sanders said.

"The President and his national security team are consulting closely with allies and partners to determine the appropriate response.

"As President Trump clearly stated, there will be a price to pay."

Israel is among those allies.

It was alarmed at Mr Trump's recent talk of pulling out of Syria, and former senior Israeli national security officials are urging a tough response.

"It was declared by the President himself that he would not allow [Syrian President Bashar al-Assad] to do it again, and here Assad did it again," former Israeli national security adviser Yaakov Amidror said.

"It's his personal credibility and the credibility of the United States of America as a superpower. By the way, for superpowers, credibility is everything."

Another former senior Israeli official, ex-Mossad intelligence agency chief Efraim Halevy, warns the chances of miscalculation are high.

"You have all the players locked in battle in a very, very small area of land. We have a gradual escalation in the region and the question is, who is going to blink first?" Mr Halevy said.

But he too advocates a strong response, rather than a symbolic one.

"If it becomes something symbolic, then it's better not done. Because then it reveals and it amplifies the fact that the United States is not really willing to face up to the Russians in Syria," he said.

However the Israelis are most concerned with Syria's other main ally, Iran, and its growing presence in Syria.

"The number one purpose of the Iranian escapade in Syria is to reach a face-to-face border line with Israel, that is their aim," Mr Halevy said.

On the weekend Israel bombed an airfield north east of Damascus for the second time in two months and reportedly killed members of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

A new conflict is gathering pace.

"It brings Israel in direct [conflict] with the Revolutionary Guard, it is the heart of the regime," Mr Halevy said.

With all of that in mind, Mr Trump's decision about striking Syria is being seen in Israel as feeding into his decision next month on whether to scrap the Iran nuclear deal, and what the implications of that might be.

Mr Halevy said it would be a mistake to scrap the deal, especially in the face of European and British resistance.

"First of all (scrapping the deal) frees the Iranians of any obligation," he said.

"It underlines the isolation of the United States on the one hand and Israel on the other and it allows the Russians and the Chinese to pursue many of the aims that they would like to pursue in the region."

Mr Amidror says the deal should be scrapped, and how Mr Trump acts in response to the alleged chemical weapons attack will help define what he does about the nuclear issue.

"My assessment is that the more credibility that the President will buy in this act (of striking Syria), the bigger the chance that the Iranians will be ready to speak about modifications in the agreement," Mr Amidror said.

As inspectors from the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons prepare to head into Syria, the stakes are growing.

Topics: unrest-conflict-and-war, international-law, world-politics, donald-trump, syrian-arab-republic, russian-federation, israel, united-states

First posted April 11, 2018 10:45:03

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