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Posted: Mon, 04 Mar 2019 06:52:27 GMT

The government has been accused of fibbing about its record on carbon emissions after a contentious interview on the ABC’s Insiders program yesterday.

Energy Minister Angus Taylor repeatedly claimed Australia’s emissions were falling. Host Barrie Cassidy said they were rising. By the end of the ensuing argument everyone, including the viewers, felt frustrated.

It all kicked off when Mr Taylor repeated the government’s frequent claim that it had overseen a turnaround of 1.1 billion tonnes in carbon abatement since taking over from Labor.

“The result is there’s less carbon in the atmosphere,” he said.

“Not less emissions in the atmosphere, and we’ll get to that in a moment,” Cassidy said.

“That’s wrong Barrie. There’s less carbon in the atmosphere because we beat our Kyoto targets, it’s as simple as that,” Mr Taylor shot back.

Cassidy said emissions were “up over the last five years, not down”.

“The latest greenhouse gas report that came out last week showed that emissions are down over 1 per cent in the electricity sector,” Mr Taylor said.

“No, no, they’re up by 1 per cent over a year,” Cassidy said.

“No, no, you’re wrong Barrie. A report came out last week saying they are coming down,” Mr Taylor replied.

When we discuss carbon emissions, there are two distinct targets.

The 2020 Kyoto target is to get emissions 5 per cent below the level from 2000. The more challenging 2030 Paris target is to reduce emissions to 26-28 per cent below 2005 levels.

The government’s most recent emissions projections found Australia was on track to surpass its 2020 target, and “the task to meet the 2030 target had declined”, which was a polite way of saying we’re not quite there yet.

Anyway, back to the interview.

“Total emissions are coming down,” Mr Taylor said.

“They’re up by 0.9 per cent over the year,” said Cassidy.

“In the last year they have come down 1.5 per cent,” the minister insisted.

“Not a quarter. Over the year. They’re up by 0.9 per cent, and they have increased every year for the last five years,” an increasingly exasperated Cassidy said.

“Well, they are coming down right now Barrie,” Mr Taylor said.

“It’s not what the figures say,” Cassidy replied.

Mr Taylor went on to claim the government had inherited a “deficit” of 755 million tonnes from Labor when it came to the Kyoto target.

“You talk about surplus and deficits. Emissions actually fell during the Gillard period because of the price on carbon, and then started to increase again once that price on carbon was eliminated,” Cassidy said.

“Well look, there’s no doubt that Labor did a lot of damage to the economy when they were in power,” Mr Taylor responded.

Today Labor has accused the Liberals of “denying reality” on the carbon emission figures. Climate change and energy spokesman Mark Butler called Mr Taylor’s interview “disastrous and dishonest”.

“Saying ‘emissions are coming down’ is a complete lie. They are going in the opposite direction,” Mr Butler said.

“The government’s own data projections show emissions will keep rising to 2030, regardless of how many times Mr Taylor denies reality.”

Who is really telling the truth here? Let’s go to the government’s official data.

The update of Australia’s national greenhouse gas inventory, released last week, showed seasonally adjusted emissions dropped 1.4 per cent in the September quarter compared to the previous quarter.

A big reason for that was a strong decrease in the electricity sector, helped along by a 12.3 per cent reduction in brown coal supply.

In the whole year through to September, however, emissions increased by 0.9 per cent.

The main cause of that increase was a rise in liquid natural gas exports.

So Cassidy was correct that emissions have risen by 0.9 in the latest annual data.

The figure Mr Taylor cited was the seasonally adjusted 1.4 per cent drop in the most recent quarter.

How about Labor’s claim that emissions will keep going up until 2030?

Total emissions in the economy at the end of September were the equivalent of 536 million tonnes, and the government’s latest emissions projections predict total emissions of 563 million tonnes in 2030.

So yes, emissions are projected to keep rising.

The current trajectory would leave Australia 7 per cent below its 2005 emission levels in 2030. That’s not good enough to meet the Paris target.

You can see the projections in this graph. Note that emissions peaked in the mid-2000s.

In the wake of Mr Taylor’s tense interview yesterday, ABC RN Breakfast host Fran Kelly suggested government MPs were even avoiding using the word ‘coal’.

“What is really noticeable this week, is that we haven’t heard a peep about coal,” Kelly said on Insiders.

“You couldn’t get the word coal out of Angus Taylor’s mouth this morning … he’s clearly I think been given the message: do not mention underwriting coal.”

The Morrison Government has not ruled out supporting new coal projects as part of its Underwriting New Generation Investments program.

This would see the government underwriting projects by, for example, covering losses if new climate policies impact profits.

Mr Taylor would not reveal how many projects the government was considering underwriting but Resources Minister Matt Canavan told Sky News “around 10” projects were being looked at.

Last week Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced funding to get started on the giant hydro project Snowy Hydro 2.0 in NSW and for a feasibility study into Tasmania’s Battery of the Nation, which could provide electricity when the sun isn’t shining and the wind isn’t blowing as an alternative to coal and gas.

It’s been an interesting turnaround from the party whose relatively new leader, Mr Morrison, once brought a lump of coal into parliament and told people “don’t be afraid”.

But it may reflect the growing concern around climate change among Australians. According to The Guardian, private polling conducted for the environment movement and for the major parties suggests concern is sitting at levels not seen since the federal election cycle in 2007 when Labor leader Kevin Rudd promised real action on climate change and turfed John Howard out of government.

Kelly also noted that vocal cheerleaders for the coal industry including Tony Abbott, Kevin Andrews and Eric Abetz had also been missing in action.

Mr Abbott is facing a tough contest in his electorate of Warringah where independent Zali Steggall is drawing support from wealthy local investors who want climate change action, according to The Australian.

Ms Steggall has already been labelled the “carbon tax candidate” by Mr Abbott but she is embracing climate change action as a key part of her campaign pitch. She has previously told news.com.au there needed to be an orderly retirement of coal and rejected the idea of “clean coal”.

Kelly said recent announcements from the Liberal Party may be enough to convince some voters they could still vote for the Morrison government because it was doing something about climate change but it may not be enough for others.

“I don’t think it will be enough for anyone who’s actually interested in the issue.”

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