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Scott Morrison has warned that Australia risks facing coronavirus "horror scenarios" witnessed overseas if physical distancing is abandoned, particularly during the Easter long weekend.
Key points:
- The Prime Minister insists coronavirus modelling is highly theoretical
- He says the models are based on international data, not Australian cases
- Australians are being told that physical distancing will have to be sustained for months
He made the comments as the Federal Government prepared to release the details of its coronavirus modelling, which the Prime Minister insisted was "theoretical" and not based on Australian cases of the virus.
The Government has faced sustained pressure to release the modelling, which has helped shape the decisions the National Cabinet has made in a bid to halt the spread of COVID-19.
"We must hold the course, we must lock in these gains," Mr Morrison said.
"We have so far avoided the horror scenarios we have seen overseas."
Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy provided a summary of the modelling, which he said canvassed "horrendous" but "highly theoretical" scenarios shown to the Government.
The full details of the modelling will be released later today.
"You're getting everything we've got," Mr Morrison said.
Dr Murphy said the modelling was based on international data because Australia did not yet have enough cases to provide mathematically reliable figures.
The mathematicians who carry out the modelling will create Australian-specific models as the number of cases increase in the coming weeks.
"It's still very early data. Once we have something scientifically valid and useful we will share it with the National Cabinet and you," Dr Murphy said.
"It's too early to tell on the trend data we have. In the next week to 10 days we'll have much better trend data."
Dr Murphy said Australia had 5,844 confirmed cases of coronavirus, including 44 deaths, as of 1:30pm AEDT.
He said fewer than 100 people were in intensive care units, with fewer than 40 of them on ventilators.
But he said he was concerned more than 500 people in Australia had contracted coronavirus from people who were unaware they had the virus.
More than 10,000 people have now died of coronavirus in the US, while British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is in intensive care after his coronavirus symptoms worsened.
Mr Morrison said Australia had avoided the death tolls witnessed overseas, particularly in Italy, the US, the UK and China, because people had adhered to physical distancing.
He said Australian cases would surge if people failed to follow distancing guidelines during Easter.
"This Easter weekend will be incredibly important. Stay at home," Mr Morrison said.
"Failure to do so this weekend would completely undo everything we have achieved so far together, and potentially worse."
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Topics: government-and-politics, infectious-diseases-other, federal-government, health, respiratory-diseases, covid-19, community-and-society, australia
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