Add Category
Updated
Scott Morrison has laid out a three-point plan that he says Australia will need to implement before we can think about relaxing social-distancing rules.
The Government has been careful to temper optimistic terms like "the road out" by reiterating we are in the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic, with the Prime Minister guaranteeing the current restrictions will remain in place for at least the next four weeks.
"We can't allow our patience to wear off," he said.
"I know it's a very anxious thing for Australians; when they see the really good result they go, 'can't we all just go back to how it was?'."
"But … if you ease off too quickly, too early, then you end up making the situation even worse."
So he outlined three things the Government wants to see before parts of the country can start to look normal again.
1. Broader testing regime
While the national guidelines for who can be tested are relatively limited, states like Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia have moved to cast a wider net.
But even those still largely rely on people showing symptoms before they can be tested.
The Government has touted Australia's world-leading symptomatic case detection rate, but you can only find what you're looking for — Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy acknowledged people who may have the virus but aren't showing symptoms are slipping through the net under the current system.
The more extensive regime, called a sentinel surveillance system, takes a more proactive approach to testing.
That can include testing every person with respiratory illnesses or every unusual pneumonia case in hospitals.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) used the example of a large network of hospitals with good laboratory conditions being used to collect "high-quality data", as well as telling us who's tested positive and who's tested negative.
"Data collected in a well-designed sentinel system can be used to signal trends, identify outbreaks and monitor the burden of disease in a community, providing a rapid, economical alternative to other surveillance methods," the WHO said.
"Because sentinel surveillance is conducted only in selected locations, however, it may not be as effective for detecting rare diseases or diseases that occur outside the catchment areas of the sentinel sites."
On Monday, Health Minister Greg Hunt said they wanted to see a sustained decrease in cases before things would change.
2. Better contact tracing
The Prime Minister described state and territory health authorities as "a team of Sherlock Holmes'" for the work they've done in tracing cases back to their first point of contact.
Stay up-to-date on the coronavirus outbreak
But he said contact tracing needed to be lifted to "an industrial capacity" to make it even more effective in sniffing out the root cause of cases and outbreaks.
"If we can get that in place, get the tracing capability up from where it is, that will give us more options and Australians more freedoms," he said.
3. We need to be confident in containing outbreaks
The threat of a second or third wave makes easing restrictions a fraught process.
If people resume gathering in large groups, businesses reopen and trains, planes and automobiles start being crammed full of people again, there could be more outbreaks and that curve we've worked to flatten could turn into a spike.
Your questions on coronavirus answered:
Before the restrictions can be lifted, authorities need to be confident in the health system's ability to contain any clusters that may emerge or, as Professor Murphy warned, we could end up looking like the US or the UK.
He said the health system simply wasn't at that level yet, but both he and Mr Morrison pointed to the current situation in north-west Tasmania as the right way to handle a community outbreak.
"It has been expertly handled by the Tasmanian health authorities in an exemplar way of bringing an episode under control," Professor Murphy said.
But, while Tasmanian authorities, with some help from the Australian Defence Force, moved quickly to isolate thousands of people in the region, the Government is not confident the same is possible if there were multiple outbreaks across the country right now.
Where that leaves us
The Prime Minister said over the next four weeks the National Cabinet would look at how Australia could get into good position on all three of these fronts.
That means the current restrictions outlined by the Federal Government around things like gatherings, essential businesses and schools will remain in place for at least that four-week period.
What the experts are saying about coronavirus:
After that month or so, the National Cabinet will examine the progress they've made, reassess targets and review any changes that may or may not be needed.
The good news is Australia has hit many of its goals around infection rates and gross numbers faster than forecast.
Even so, Mr Morrison said some form of restrictions are likely to remain for the six months through September, and guidance around hand-washing and social distancing should remain until a vaccine has been created.
What you need to know about coronavirus:
Topics: covid-19, diseases-and-disorders, health, respiratory-diseases, federal-government, government-and-politics, australia
First posted