What is the point of the pain if Morrison cannot lead his government, and the country, out of this torment?

Archer, the first of her party to support the women’s march outside Parliament on March 15, has broken down in Parliament several times in the past few weeks. Labor leader Anthony Albanese walked over to her with tissues on Thursday.

What worries Archer is that the public debate, launched when former Liberal staffer Brittany Higgins went public with her allegation of rape on February 15, is going on so long without a resolution.

“The past month or so has been very painful, especially for anyone with lived experience,” she says. “These are difficult but necessary conversations if they begin a process of meaningful change. Otherwise, the risk is that we are continuing to cause pain, and we must recognise that it is very emotionally triggering for many people.”

Another Liberal, Lucy Wicks, told Parliament about the impact on her and others of the weeks of stories: “These revelations and the instances of the gross mistreatment of women both here and around the nation have brought back some horrible memories for many of us, including me, in my personal life and in the workplace.”

The frustration is palpable among Liberals and Nationals who want something done but are expected to stand by Morrison while he tries to find an answer. Some women have stopped taking calls from the Prime Minister’s office. Why pick up the phone? They do not want to do what Morrison’s advisers so clearly need: to put female Liberals in front of the cameras to defend the leader. What they want is a policy.

Morrison’s face revealed the damage to his leadership and his government this week. His press conference on Tuesday, when he shed tears as he spoke about the women in his life, happened only because of the enormous pressure to admit his response over the previous month had been too weak.

That moment will be remembered as a turning point. What nobody knows is whether he is on a path to recovery or ruin. The way he turned on the media, in the dumbest brain snap from a prime minister in a press conference in recent memory, only compounded the questions and doubts. Will he ever find the right way forward?

The steps to a solution are not secret.

The chief executive of the Queensland Women’s Legal Service, Angela Lynch, took them to the government when the March 4 Justice gathered outside Parliament House. Her ideas included stronger targets in the national plan on violence against women, tougher laws against sexual violence, a better court process for victims and more funding for family safety.

Loading

Lynch also asked for a national summit of federal and state leaders with women and experts on sexual violence. Something like this has support within the Liberal party room – Archer wants it, as does Victorian regional backbencher Russell Broadbent. Inside the government, however, it remains a work in progress with no structure, deadline or – so far – ambition.

Social Services Minister Anne Ruston tried to have a summit last year but suspended it during the coronavirus pandemic. It is an obvious step for Morrison because it builds on things he has already done. He announced $328 million two years ago for services including the 1800 RESPECT domestic violence hotline, emergency housing and home security for people threatened with family violence.

The mystery is why Morrison has not promised this summit already. It should be held by September to negotiate the next funding round with the states and territories. There is a stubbornness in Morrison, however, that makes it hard for him to announce things others have called for first.

Loading

Other failures have not helped. One fact that emerged this week was that Attorney-General Christian Porter never met his department officials to discuss the Respect@Work report into workplace sexual assault. Sex Discrimination Commissioner Kate Jenkins delivered that report one year ago.

The government response to that report will appear within days. The damage from the delay is already done. There will be new funding and new measures, however, to show the government has woken up to the problem.

Morrison took over the Respect@Work response this week, but the fact he did so only highlighted the inadequacy of his ministry. Minister for Women Marise Payne needs more women around her in this portfolio, given she is also Minister for Foreign Affairs. The coming reshuffle of the ministry sets up an opportunity. Morrison wants to move Porter to a new post as well as shifting Linda Reynolds from defence, given the questions over her health. But he could do more to revitalise his team.

Payne, who does not do her fair share of public advocacy in the government’s cause, needs more help. The logical solution is a new minister, or assistant minister, on the prevention of sexual assault. The reshuffle will be a moment for Morrison to prove he is listening.

To dither any longer will be to doom the government. Ian McAllister, a professor of politics and international relations at the Australian National University, says Morrison is vulnerable to the same backlash from women that helped finish off other prime ministers. “It’s not looking good at the moment,” he says.

The Australian Election Study, which McAllister led from 1987 to 2019, shows the danger. Women have become more progressive over decades, but they shift suddenly when leaders offend them. Former prime minister Paul Keating antagonised some with his aggressive style, fuelling a swing to the Liberals in the years before Labor lost power in 1996.

“When Keating disappeared, it went back to the long-term trend,” says McAllister. His index of gender voting shows a return to balance (a figure of zero) in the final years of the Howard government, with two sharp swings over the past decade.

First, the gender index moved to minus seven when Julia Gillard became prime minister, as women backed her leadership. It returned to zero when Tony Abbott won the 2013 election, suggesting women gave him the benefit of the doubt. But it did not stay there long. It turned again, with a figure of minus six, with a swing to Labor among women at the 2016 election.

Loading

This electoral force really does have the power to make or break leaders. The scale of the shift for Morrison, however, is a live question.

“Plenty of women are obviously exercised about the allegations swamping Canberra at the moment, but we shouldn’t expect that it will change any votes,” says Jill Sheppard, senior lecturer at ANU and another expert on the Australian Election Study.

“We know from AES data that economic security, health and education tend to drive vote choice, and unless gender and the treatment of women remain front of voters’ minds, that won’t change. The government’s ham-fisted handling of the issue might undermine voters’ confidence in their ability to govern effectively, but any effect will probably be concentrated among voters who wouldn’t consider voting for the Coalition anyway.

“Almost every swinging voter would need to be intensely concerned about this issue for it to have any discernible effect on the Coalition’s vote. It’s more likely that it adds to pre-existing concerns about Morrison’s ability to run an effective and responsive government.”

Labor has declared Morrison finished. “What we’ve seen this fortnight is a tired, stale government that’s unravelling before our eyes,” Albanese said on Thursday. Labor education spokeswoman Tanya Plibersek wondered aloud whether Morrison’s tears last Tuesday were an act.

What should alarm Morrison, and all those around him, is that some Liberals agree. There has always been a group of Liberals, let alone critics outside the party, who believe Morrison’s public persona is a facade.

“He can do as much empathy training as he wants but he can’t make that come out in any shape or form that looks sincere,” says one Liberal MP. “This is the beginning of the end of Scotty from marketing.”

Is his leadership safe? Morrison laughed off that question from ABC Radio host Sabra Lane on Thursday morning. He is not under threat within his party. Even so, his colleagues can see his feet of clay. The man who won the 2019 election almost single-handedly looks suddenly clumsy. And the men who advise him are not as clever as they thought.

Loading

Environment Minister Sussan Ley says change is coming. “One person can’t achieve this change – everyone in this building needs to be part of achieving this change,” she said this week.

Ley has backed quotas for women and wants a target of 40 per cent women among federal Liberal MPs. But this debate could take years, given the reluctance of Liberal branches to accept a new model.

The bigger test is in the community beyond the Parliament, the parties and the politicians. Can Morrison convince women he has a way to help them?

“The PM has heard from Australian women loud and clear and I think his press conference this week was a watershed moment,” says Katie Allen, the member for Higgins in eastern Melbourne and a paediatrician before she entered Parliament.

“His speech resonated with me and other women but words are not enough – they have to be followed by action. He’s not the sort of person to have a watershed moment and not deliver.”

His only way out is a significant policy plan that has enough money to force change in the treatment of women. That means action on discrimination, pay, sexual harassment, sexual assault, rape and violence – inside the Parliament and in the world beyond.

Without all this, his tears on Tuesday will be meaningless.

National Sexual Assault, Family & Domestic Violence Counselling Line: 1800 737 732. Crisis support can be found at Lifeline: (13 11 14 and lifeline.org.au).