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Posted: 2022-07-26 04:40:54

Foot-and-mouth disease might be dominating the headlines, but Australian officials say there are other diseases on our doorstep to watch out for.

Experts say these are the next big threats you need to know about — and some of them are already here.

a mosquito
Japanese encephalitis virus is spread by mosquitoes.(AAP: Dave Hunt)

Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV)

The mosquito-borne virus was detected in Australia in February 2022, with biosecurity officials confirming its presence at 70 piggeries in Victoria, Queensland and New South Wales.

Since then, there have been 40 cases in humans and five people died from the disease last year.

JEV was first documented in Japan in 1871 and has since become endemic to South-East Asia and the Western Pacific.

A man wearing chinos and a button-up shirt stands in a forest clearing with his hands on his hips.
Peter Murray says the threat of JEV is likely to increase in the warmer months.(Supplied: University of Southern Queensland)

University of Southern Queensland associate professor Peter Murray said it had a horrific impact on infected pigs.

"It causes all sorts of things, like mummified piglets when they are born, neurological diseases in the pigs in their first year of life," he said.

Dr Murray said record rainfall this winter had created a "perfect storm" for JEV to spread, which could lead to a greater number of infections in humans.

"We're coming up now into the warmer part of the year and that will then promote the likelihood of mosquitoes breeding," he said.

"And there's climate change [leading to] warmer environments … those mosquitoes are going to move further south.

He said if the disease got into a piggery, it was likely the pigs there would have to be killed.

There is a JEV vaccine for JEV for humans, but not for pigs.

A steer with lesions on its skin.
Lumpy skin disease can cause skin lesions in infected animals.(Shutterstock)

Lumpy skin disease (LSD)

The viral disease affects cattle and water buffalo and causes skin lesions, fever, loss of appetite, decreased milk production, and can lead to death.

Originally limited to Africa, the disease has spread to China and South-East Asia, with cases being confirmed on the Indonesian island of Sumatra in March 2022.

University of Queensland professor Tim Mahony said it was one of the "clear and present dangers" for Australia's agriculture industry.

"If it was to make it to the mainland and infect susceptible species, then we would see a lockdown of livestock populations," he said.

Dr Mahony said the disease could also shut down Australia's cattle export industry.

Thailand and Russia issued temporary bans last year to try and prevent the spread of LSD.

There is currently no LSD vaccine approved for use in Australia.

But the federal Department of Agriculture's Chris Parker recently told the West Australian Country Hour work was being done to deliver a safe vaccine.

There have not been any outbreaks of LSD in Australia so far.

Pigs in a pen, looking quite content.
ASF has the potential to kill every infected pig.(ABC Rural: Tom Edwards)

African swine fever (ASF)

The virus was first documented in sub-Saharan Africa in 1921.

It has since spread to parts of Europe, including Russia and Ukraine, as well as China, Vietnam, Cambodia and Myanmar.

The disease is highly contagious and can kill 100 per cent of the pigs it infects.

The virus can survive on items such as clothes, boots and wheels, and can also survive for long periods in uncooked, frozen or cured pig products.

Pork floss imported from China that was being sold in Melbourne was recently seized after viral fragments of foot-and-mouth disease and ASF were detected.

The fragments, which are not the same as the live virus, do not pose a threat to human health and Australia remains free from the virus.

Kirsty Richards, the senior veterinarian at SunPork, one of Australia's largest pork producers, said the threat of ASF was still one of the main concerns.

"We've been actively engaged in awareness, preparedness and prevention activities for years now," she said.

Dr Richards said if ASF or FMD got into Australia the consequences would be "catastrophic".

Australia has some protection from the threat, with a strict closed border policy regarding pig genetics, but, unlike other industries, it is unable to protect their bloodlines.

"The pork industry has a few vulnerabilities in this space, Dr Richards said.

"We are unable to successfully freeze our genetics," she said. 

Australian Pork, the industry's peak body, said the most significant threat in terms of the transmission of the virus was illegally imported pork products, which could be fed as swill to domestic pigs and infect feral populations.

There is no vaccine available for ASF in Australia.

Empty shelves in a supermarket.
Experts say ASF, JEV or LSD outbreaks could lead to meat shortages.(Supplied)

Why should I care?

Dr Mahony said the impact would be devastating if any of the diseases were to take hold in Australia.

"Australia trading on our clean, disease-free image is a critical part of what helps us maintain some of these export markets that are so profitable for livestock industries," he said.

He said the diseases would also have a major impact on Australian supermarkets.

"If our livestock industries get locked dowN and can't supply their suppliers, that's ultimately going to affect everybody in the cities as well," he said.

"[People] should care because that's where our food comes from.

"We saw that in the pandemic, when abattoirs were unable to process animals, then you had shortages of meat in our supermarkets."

A recent analysis by a group of experts led by the country's chief vet Mark Schipp found there was a 42 per cent probability Australia would experience a major animal disease outbreak in the next five years.

The analysis also found there was a one in five chance of an African swine fever outbreak, and an eight per cent probability of a lumpy skin disease outbreak.

People in masks and uniforms talk to people inside an airport.
The CPSU says border staff are exhausted.(ABC News: Luke Bowden)

What's being done?

Dr Mahony said Australia's border controls had been very effective in keeping FMD, LSD and ASF out of the country.

"These systems have not just been invented in the last four weeks," he said.

"They've been there for many, many years, decades.

"I think we have a good, strong and historical culture of biosecurity.

"Our government certainly does, so they've put the resources in there."

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But there are concerns about how well staffed border agencies are.

The Community and Public Sector Union (CPSU) said an increasing workload at airports and ports was taking its toll.

"The ongoing reliance on casuals is negatively affecting arrival checks, worker safety, and passenger delays," deputy national president Brooke Muscat said.

"CPSU members work hard and diligently to ensure our environment and agriculture is not infiltrated by pests or introduced diseases, but staffing pressure is making this work harder.

"This will only we exacerbated with the much-needed increased biosecurity zones."

The union said it was calling for a federal audit of staffing and workloads.

The federal Department of Agriculture has been contacted for a response.

What else should we worry about?

Dr Murray said new diseases were the biggest concern.

"Australia sits below a tropical hotspot with a whole lot of mosquito-borne diseases, and that's where something like 70 per cent of new diseases are coming from," he said.

"As [wild animals] move out of those wild populations into human populations, we are having, arguably, new diseases appear.

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