I’m a glass half-empty kind of person. If anything could go wrong, I assume it will go wrong. And that’s the lens through which I look at the European energy crisis. Perhaps my biases cloud me, but I think we should all be sceptical of the emerging narrative that says the worst is over.

The good news is that energy prices have certainly fallen a lot in the past three months. Natural gas prices are down to around €135 ($211) per megawatt hour from a peak of €350 set in August. European electricity prices have more than halved in the same period. Plus, Europe has managed to build up its gas inventories nearly to the brim, and one of the warmest autumns on record reduced consumption significantly.

And yet. Both gas and power prices remain sky-high compared to historical averages. Even after the drop, gas is today seven times more expensive than it was in the 2000-2020 period; electricity is 10 times higher. The cumulative impact matters, too. It’s not just how high prices go, but how long they stay up there. The period of high prices today looks like it will last awhile.

But my biggest issue with the “worst is over” mantra is that the cold season has only just started. The meteorological winter began on December 1. The astronomical winter doesn’t start until December 21. Ahead lie the 100-plus coldest days of the year. And we simply don’t know whether the season will be normal, mild or bitingly cold.

Listen to the energy bulls, and everyone is worried about high pressures over Greenland, which can block Atlantic storms, pushing freezing air from high latitudes into Europe and causing cold, windless days that are terrible for electricity markets. The bears believe the threat is hyped, and see instead the potential for several Atlantic storms blowing into the continent, pushing up wind generation and keeping temperatures closer to the average.

The problem is, energy markets are so tight that only a few degrees Celsius, or a few windless days, are what separate Europe facing blackouts from having enough power to make it through the winter. And although gas has been emblematic of the energy crisis since Russia cut supplies, I remain more worried about electricity.

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There’s still a significant risk that consumers will be asked to reduce demand. Localised blackouts remain a strong possibility, particularly for France, Finland, Ireland and Sweden. In its winter outlook, released last week, the association of the European companies that manage the grid (ENTSO-E) said: “[The] situation this winter is critical but manageable.” That doesn’t sound like the worst is over.

Last week also offered a preview of how a crisis could develop in the coming months Across Europe, the wind nearly stopped, forcing the grids to lean harder on gas-fired power stations and, in Germany, on coal. In the past, the French nuclear industry would have stepped up, exporting electricity to everyone. But France was importing lots of power as many of its reactors have been down for repairs, further tightening the market. As a result, electricity prices surged. In the Nordic region, the weekly average price surged to €318 per MWh, the third-highest weekly price ever.