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A Papua New Guinean researcher says Australia must help deliver the country's first census in more than a decade, to run alongside local initiatives, amid speculation its population is as high as 17 million.
Key points:
- Tracking births and deaths at the village-level in ward record books is seen as cheap and effective
- Next year, Papua New Guinea is likely to hold its first national census in more than a decade
- There are reports PNG's population is as high as 17 million, double the government's estimate
PNG was due for a census in 2021, but it was delayed by the pandemic and is unlikely to happen before 2024. In the meantime, locals have been devising a grassroots solution.
It's called a ward record book and provincial governments pay individuals a monthly wage of 100 kina ($42) to record all births and deaths in the village.
With most of the country living in rural areas, National Research Institute director Osborne Sanida said it was the most-efficient way to track the population.
"We need to make this system work so that we don't have to wait for 10-year periods to get the population [statistics]," he said. "We need population data to make informed decisions in our policy and planning.
"You are not planning for the sake of planning, you are planning to affect the lives of people."
New Ireland Province, the north-eastern-most province in PNG, re-introduced ward record books in 2020.
Its director of local government, Rickie Fugonto, said they had already seen benefits.
"Information that is coming from the ward is being properly scrutinised by ward recorders, ward members through the district administration and we think it's a perfect way of recording," he said.
"It was a good way to reduce cost for the government budget … you don't need to spend a lot of money. We get baseline data that is established through the system."
According to a report in The Australian newspaper, a study by the United Nations Population Fund put PNG's population at almost double the government's estimated 9.4 million, reportedly by using "satellite modelling, housing data and household surveys".
If true, the Lowy Institute's Maholopa Laveil said it raised major concerns about people's living conditions and the delivery of government services.
"GDP per capita would halve and then bring us lower than low-middle income countries [such as] those in southern Africa," said Mr Laveil, who researches economics and politics in PNG.
"I'm sceptical. I think we really need to get our hands on the study."
The ABC's requests for a copy of the report were unsuccessful.
Figure 'seems a little far-fetched'
Mr Laveil said he had some reservations about the UN study and said satellite imaging "doesn't work" in remote areas.
"PNG has 96 districts and 91 of those districts are rural, so counting, for example, night lights or house roofs … is not credible," he said.
He said that, if the population was as high as 17 million, the public sector would have already buckled under the pressure.
"We would see that pressure in things like overload in hospital patients, overload in schools, and we're not seeing that," he said.
"If we had the report, then we'd be able to make an informed comment. But, at this moment, it seems a little far-fetched."
PNG is currently in the middle of a population boom which is creating a "youth bulge", where the number of young people exceeds any other age group.
Lawyer Emma Minimbi helps women in rural PNG get access to justice. She said she wasn't surprised that the population might be far bigger than previously thought.
"In my community, people as young as 17, 18 are having children, so that 17 million number doesn't seem far off. It's not an unrealistic number," she said.
"You've got populations of people living here that have never had a service that comes directly to them, whether it's a road or a hospital.
"You've got people who are forgotten by the government."
The ABC put questions to Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, asking for its thoughts on the figure and how it could affect Australia's aid to the region.
A DFAT spokesperson refused to comment, saying it was "a matter for the UN Population Fund and the government of PNG".
Mr Laveil said it was in Australia's best interest to help deliver the next count.
"PNG urgently needs a census, and it's development partners should support the government's plan to carry out a 2024 census," he said.
"If PNG's population increases, that increases its security risk … and geopolitical security in the region at large."
Democracy stands to benefit
Mr Laveil said reliable census data would also improve the "faulty" electoral roll, while Ms Minimby said millions of people, potentially, were not registered to vote.
"If you've got more than half the population saying, 'We didn't vote' … where is the democracy in all this?" she asked.
Prime Minister James Marape labelled the UN figure an "assumption" and said the issue would be put to rest after a "deep look" at its population.
"From our own estimations at the National Statistics Office, we thought the number could be between nine to 11 million. The UN has put the number at 17 million, but the gist of that assessment is the fact that our population is growing," he said.