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Scientists working for oil giant Exxon Mobil accurately predicted global warming even as the company publicly contradicted them, according to a new report.
Key points:
- Exxon Mobil scientists predicted correctly the world would warm about 0.2C per decade
- The oil giant has been the subject of numerous lawsuits over its climate change statements
- A spokesman said critics "misrepresent" facts and the company's position
The study, published in the journal Science, looked at research funded by Exxon that confirmed what climate scientists were saying by using more than a dozen different computer models to forecast the coming warming with precision equal to or better than government and academic scientists.
At the same time, the multinational oil and gas corporation publicly cast doubt that global warming was real and dismissed climate models' accuracy.
Exxon has said its understanding of climate change has evolved over the years, claiming critics were misunderstanding its earlier research.
Scientists, governments, activists and news sites, including Inside Climate News and the Los Angeles Times, several years ago reported "Exxon knew" about the science of climate change since about 1977 all while publicly casting doubt.
The new study has detailed how accurate the Exxon-funded research was.
Sixty-three per cent to 83 per cent of those projections fit strict standards for accuracy, and generally predicted correctly that the globe would warm about 0.2 degrees Celsius a decade.
The Exxon-funded science was "actually astonishing" in its precision and accuracy, said study co-author Naomi Oreskes, a Harvard science history professor.
But she added so was the "hypocrisy because so much of the Exxon Mobil disinformation for so many years … was the claim that climate models weren't reliable".
Study lead author Geoffrey Supran, formerly of Harvard and now environmental science professor at the University of Miami, said it was different than what was previously found in documents about the oil company.
"We've dug into not just the language, the rhetoric in these documents, but also the data," Professor Supran said.
"And I'd say in that sense, our analysis really seals the deal on 'Exxon knew'.
"It gives us airtight evidence that Exxon Mobil accurately predicted global warming years before, then turned around and attacked the science underlying it."
The paper quoted then-Exxon CEO Lee Raymond in 1999 as saying future climate "projections are based on completely unproven climate models, or more often, sheer speculation," while his successor in 2013 called models "not competent".
Exxon's understanding of climate science developed along with the broader scientific community, and its four decades of research in climate science resulted in more than 150 papers, including 50 peer-reviewed publications, company spokesman Todd Spitler said.
"This issue has come up several times in recent years and, in each case, our answer is the same: those who talk about how 'Exxon Knew' are wrong in their conclusions," Mr Spitler said in an emailed statement.
"Some have sought to misrepresent facts and Exxon Mobil's position on climate science, and its support for effective policy solutions, by recasting well intended, internal policy debates as an attempted company disinformation campaign."
Lawsuits target Exxon over climate damage
Exxon, one of the world's largest oil and gas companies, has been the target of numerous lawsuits that claim the company knew about the damage its oil and gas would cause to the climate, but misled the public by sowing doubt about climate change.
In the latest such lawsuit, New Jersey accused five oil and gas companies, including Exxon, of deceiving the public for decades while knowing about the harmful toll fossil fuels took on the climate.
Similar lawsuits from New York to California have claimed that Exxon and other oil and gas companies launched public relations campaigns to stir doubts about climate change.
In one, then-Massachusetts attorney-general Maura Healey said Exxon's public relations efforts were "reminiscent of the tobacco industry's long denial campaign about the dangerous effects of cigarettes".
Ms Oreskes acknowledged in the study she had been a paid consultant in the past for a law firm suing Exxon, while Mr Supran has gotten a grant from the Rockefeller Family Foundation, which has also helped fund groups that were suing Exxon.
The Associated Press receives some foundation support from Rockefeller and maintains full control of editorial content.
Oil giants including Exxon and Shell were accused in congressional hearings in 2021 of spreading misinformation about climate, but executives from the companies denied the accusations.
'It was clear Exxon knew what was going on'
University of Illinois atmospheric scientist professor emeritus Donald Wuebbles told The Associated Press in the 1980s he worked with Exxon-funded scientists and was not surprised by what the company knew or the models.
"It was clear that Exxon Mobil knew what was going on,'' Mr Wuebbles said.
"The problem is at the same time they were paying people to put out misinformation. That's the big issue."
He added there was a difference between the "hype and spin" of companies selling a product and an "outright lie …misrepresenting factual information".
"That's what Exxon did," he said.
Several outside scientists and activists said what the study showed about Exxon's actions was serious.
"The harm caused by Exxon has been huge," University of Michigan environment dean Jonathan Overpeck said.
"They knew that fossil fuels, including oil and natural gas, would greatly alter the planet's climate in ways that would be costly in terms of lives, human suffering and economic impacts.
"And yet, despite this understanding, they choose to publicly downplay the problem of climate change and the dangers it poses to people and the planet."
Cornell University climate scientist Natalie Mahowald asked: "How many thousands of lives have been lost or adversely impacted by Exxon Mobil's deliberate campaign to obscure the science?"
AP