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In a seat held by a margin of less than 2 per cent, the lingering effects of last year's catastrophic flood could be a key factor in more ways than one in Saturday's NSW election.
Key points:
- Hundreds of people lost their homes in Lismore during the 2022 floods
- It's not known how many voters have since left the area
- A post-flood exodus could affect the outcome of the marginal seat in Saturday's election
Figures from the National Emergency Management Agency show more than 600 homes in the Lismore LGA were severely damaged or destroyed during the natural disaster, with another 1,200 receiving minor to moderate damage.
Hundreds more in the Murwillumbah area of the Tweed Shire were also damaged.
Some residents have since left the area, but the full extent of the post-flood exodus is not clear.
"We don't know if thousands of people have left the area because of the floods and [being left] homeless," Greens candidate Adam Guise said.
"We've had a change in demographic forced upon us by the floods."
Labor's sitting member, Janelle Saffin, agreed it was an issue.
"It is a factor; some people have moved away," she said.
"Some have changed their address and some have not. You know that's the last thing on their mind at the moment."
The state's electoral commissioner, John Schmidt, said the events of the past 12 months could see more people than ever before voting for candidates in a seat they were not living in on election day.
"I think that's a reasonable expectation," he said.
"It's not just the north coast; there were numerous flooding events throughout the state.
"So that will have an impact, but we won't really have the full figures until the event is run and done."
People can use an absentee vote to cast their ballot from a different electorate.
Those temporarily living interstate can do the same, but will not be fined if they do not.
"It's an excuse or a reasonable reason for not voting if you're outside NSW on election day," Mr Schmidt said.
The flood factor
Lismore is seen as a genuine three-cornered contest.
Formerly a Nationals' stronghold, Janelle Saffin won the seat for the ALP in 2019.
She polled 12,328 primary votes, compared with more than 19,000 for the Nationals candidate, but benefited from a strong flow of preferences from the Greens, which attracted 11,693 primary votes.
There has been widespread community anger about the slow pace of recovery in the year since the floods, and debate about the best strategies for keeping people safe in the future.
"The challenge for this region is rebuilding hope," Nationals' candidate Alex Rubin said.
"We need to restore the confidence of the community because right now, let's be honest, Lismore is in limbo.
"I believe the buy-back approach is flawed, and rebuilding homes and businesses is futile if it's just going to get washed away again in the next flood.
"We need to hold the water back in the upper catchment, we need to drain it faster in the lower catchment, and that will reduce the flood peaks that are occurring in our built-up areas."
Greens' candidate Adam Guise said the best plan was to move people off the flood plain, rather than relying on engineering solutions.
"We're really keen that the science is used on this, that it isn't just brain fart ideas of people to build levees or mega dams or to dredge the river," he said.
"We can't hold back the masses of water that are going to come under climate change."
Janelle Saffin said it was not realistic to think everyone could be moved to higher ground.
"A lot of Australia lives in flood plains," she said.
"We can't just up and move everybody."
"A lot of us are waiting for the CSIRO report to come out, which will look at bigger mitigation priorities."
That report is due to be released at the end of 2024.
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