Australia’s biggest companies will pay out nearly $34 billion in dividends over the next nine weeks despite a fall in corporate profits, but the forecast dividend yield over the next year remains below the long-term average.
Payouts to investors will ramp up in the coming week, with companies keen on maintaining dividend payments despite weaker profits over the past six months, according to CommSec chief economist Craig James.
“Dividends issued by S&P/ASX 200-listed companies total almost $1.7 billion in the coming week, a phenomenal $18.8 billion in the week starting March 25, and then a further $9 billion over the following three weeks,” he said.
It comes after a deluge of earnings updates last month, which AMP chief economist Dr Shane Oliver said resulted in about 42 per cent of companies surprising on the upside compared with 38 per cent that surprised on the downside. However, the average surprise was negative, with more weakness among larger companies, he said.
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Despite this, a majority – 52 per cent of companies – lifted their dividends compared with 19 per cent that held their dividends steady, and 29 per cent that cut their dividends, partly funded by a reduction in the level of cash held by businesses.
James said the value of dividend payouts over the next nine months would be less than the $35.1 billion paid during the same period last year, with the 12-month forward dividend yields for the S&P/ASX 200 Index sitting at 3.9 per cent – lower than the long-term average of 4.7 per cent since 2005.
However, James said companies were keen to maintain dividend payments, especially as alternative investments offered competitive returns.
“Over time, Australian companies have had to compete with property markets to grab the attention of investors,” he said. “But over the last year, there has been further competition from rising bank deposit rates, the solid performance of overseas equities and even alternative assets like bitcoin.”