But the cost of chocolate is unlikely to stay at current levels for long. Since the start of 2024, the trading price of cocoa has skyrocketed from $US4275 a tonne to more than $US8000, the highest it has ever been. The last record high was set in July 1977 at $4663.

Heavier rainfall in the region where most of the world’s cocoa is produced, the west African nations of Ghana, Ivory Coast, Cameroon and Nigeria, has caused disease in cocoa trees, squeezing supply for chocolate makers. This year, west African cocoa farmers are facing El Nino weather patterns of dry temperatures and extreme winds, which would make it the third year in a row of smaller cocoa harvests.

But chocolate lovers won’t feel the impact of the recent dramatic uptick in cocoa prices right away.

“The cocoa that’s gone into the chocolate that is on the shelves of retailers and supermarkets right now has been purchased quite a while ago,” ANZ head of agribusiness insights Michael Whitehead said.

“One bad crop [isn’t] the end of the world but because they had bad weather last year, too, the farmers didn’t get enough money to buy fertiliser, so that hit things even more.

“If [the cocoa price] stays high for a while, it’s pretty reasonable to expect the [cost of] your chocolate block will go up.”

Simon Crowe, the founder of burger chain Grill’d who bought artisanal chocolate brand Koko Black out of administration in early 2016, has been pleased to see chocolate sales 20 per cent higher than last year.

But the cost of making chocolate is getting more expensive. “The price of manufacturing is going up across the board. Cocoa prices have gone through the roof,” he said.

In the new financial year, Koko Black customers will be paying a little more for their handmade treats.

“The next crop isn’t harvested until about September, October. It means therefore it’s likely prices will go higher between now and then. That hurts us, undoubtedly,” he said.

“We haven’t yet taken a price increase only because we’ve had locked-in contracts. But when those contracts expire, we know that we’ll take small increases, and we’ll consider those carefully across the range.”

It’s not just cocoa prices that chocolate makers have to manage. The cost of sugar hit a 13-year high in January as an extreme dry spell hit India and Thailand, two major sugar exporters. And the price of milk in Australia has increased amid long-term declines in production and sharply rising supply chain costs.

“Chocolate companies will absolutely be doing some scenario planning now,” said Whitehead. “They will also presumably be thinking, ‘all right, how do we plan for Easter 2025 if [another bad crop] happens?’.”

Loading

Getting efficient

In the face of rising input costs, chocolate makers will need to work harder to keep the price low, which will be imperative to keep sales up. As much as snacks might appear recession-proof, consumers are acutely sensitive to price points. An ABS study last year found chocolate was the No.1 most “elastic” food category: a 1 per cent increase in price would result in a 7 per cent decrease in sales.

O’Brien is conscious of this. “One of the things that drives efficiency in our business is selling volume. And when prices go up, volumes tend to come off,” he said.

Mondelez International has invested $34 million into bulking up its chocolate-making lines in its Ringwood facility, so it will be able to double the number of Easter eggs made to 970 million by next year.

Koko Black’s manufacturing site is in Victoria’s Coburg, but Crowe – anticipating expansion and long-term growth – is on the hunt for larger digs.

“We need to move to a purpose-built facility, and we’re looking for that option now so that we can actually find and build something that’s going to take us forward to the next five to 10 years,” he said.

Even if chocolate does become more pricey, people might buy less – but they probably won’t stop altogether.

“Try explaining food elasticity to your kids if they want to look for chocolate eggs in the garden on Sunday morning,” said Whitehead.

“People will still pay what it costs for chocolate at Easter.”