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Posted: 2024-04-22 22:31:47

That's according to a note published by Julian Evans-Pritchard from Capital Economics.

He's the head of the company's China Economics branch, and says all is not what it seems for the country after spending a week travelling in Beijing and Shanghai.

"At first glance, China's economy is doing fine," he wrote.

"Despite this, there has been a marked change away from the optimism that prevailed during China's boom years to greater caution and scepticism."

That's because there is a widely-voiced view that China's economy isn't expanding at 5.3% year on year (the rate recorded in its first quarter GDP figures), which Evans-Pritchard says could be for a few reasons:

  • The official GDP figures may be overstating the strength of the economy
  • The difference between real and nominal growth may be playing a bigger role — noting that in real terms, the pandemic slowdown wasn't "too severe" (from 6% in 2019 to 5.3% last quarter), but the downturn as been "much more pronounced" in nominal terms (from 7.3% to 4.2%)

Evans-Pritchard also noted that "China's current economic woes are weighing most heavily on high earners".

"The people we spoke to acknowledged that negative wealth effects from falling property and equity prices had made them less inclined to spend and they didn't think that the official schemes to boost consumption announced so far would alter their behaviour much," he wrote.

There is also continued pessimism about China's property sector, with Evans-Pritchard writing that those he spoke to believe the situation is "unlikely to improve anytime soon", and the "correction in home prices is far from over".

He also added that consumers are uneasy about China's medium-term economic outlook, fewer consumers believe "their incomes and wealth will continue to grow rapidly", and some expect further escalations in trade tensions.

As for a path forward for China's economy, Evans-Pritchard  wrote that even that is attracting "considerable debate".

"Many believe that fiscal policy is reaching its limits given the mounting debt problems among local governments," he wrote.

"In theory, a country with high savings and low inflation can continue to run a large fiscal deficit for a long time. But, in practice, constraints on fiscal policy tend to be political rather than economic, and so perceptions about the sustainability of government debt matter.

"Monetary support was generally seen as preferable but there were differing views about the wisdom of the PBOC [People's Bank of China] relaxing its grip on the exchange rate in order to facilitate more substantial monetary easing."

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