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The Brisbane Lions are in serious trouble.
After coming within a kick of winning last year's grand final, the Lions have stumbled out of the gates this year and are in danger of missing the finals altogether.
Brisbane was forced to strenuously deny explosive claims of infighting earlier in the season, but the on-field product has so far continued to be disjointed to say the least.
So what exactly has gone wrong for a team that was so explosive in the past five seasons?
Offensive struggles like never before
It only takes a cursory glance at Brisbane's numbers this season for its struggles forward of the ball to stick out like a sore thumb.
Since first making the finals under Fagan in 2019, Brisbane has constantly been one of the highest-scoring teams in the competition.
The Lions ranked second in points scored last season, behind only Adelaide, and have ranked in the top five in scoring in the AFL in each of the past five seasons.
So far this season, Brisbane has struggled to put points on the board, ranking 13th in the competition in scoring ahead of only St Kilda, West Coast, North Melbourne, Richmond and Hawthorn.
Brisbane's current percentage of 94.2 is its lowest since 2018, Fagan's second season at the helm when the team managed just five wins and registered a percentage of 89.1. What is more staggering is the fact that this current percentage is propped up by a 70-point thumping of perennial strugglers North Melbourne.
Fagan's side has managed to exceed the 100-point mark just once in seven matches this season, something they did in almost half their matches last season en-route to the grand final.
The 100-point mark has been somewhat of a golden number for Fagan's Lions in the past 12 months. Of the 10 games in last year's home and away season where they scored in triple figures, the Lions went 9-1, with the sole loss coming by a single point.
So far this season, Brisbane is averaging 73.85 points per game. In comparison, the Lions scored below this mark on just five occasions last season, going 2-3 in such games.
All of Brisbane's leading goal kickers from last year are down on their output from a season ago.
Joe Daniher led the Lions last year with 61 goals from 26 appearances, with Charlie Cameron, Eric Hipwood, Zac Bailey and Lincoln McCarthy rounding out the top five. All five players are so far averaging fewer goals per game than they did last season.
'Garbage' efforts from stars under the microscope
According to former Sydney Swans coach Paul Roos, the root of Brisbane's problems this season has been the level of effort from its star players all over the park.
Roos, a premiership winner with Sydney in 2005, pointed to Daniher and Cameron as two players who have dropped their levels so far this season.
"They're lazy on defence, their two brilliant forwards aren't buying in anymore," he told the ABC's AFL Daily podcast.
"Individual acts are keeping them in the game, they've got enough talent to be able to do that, but they're going down a slippery slope and Chris [Fagan] has got to find a way to get buy-in again from the players that look like they're disinterested to play as a team.
"If I look at Charlie Cameron and Joe Daniher, their efforts defensively are terrible. They've always been a bit questionable, but I look at them and think if you put Brody Mihocek and Jamie Elliott in that team and simply took out Joe Daniher and Charlie Cameron, that's a different team. Despite what Chris says publicly, he would know that.
"With Joe Daniher, I'm sitting there getting super frustrated. The reason why they're going in the forward line so much and not getting a result is because they don't tackle, they don't chase, and these are the benchmarks of a great team."
Roos was particularly critical of Daniher, who has often been a polarising player throughout his 184-game career between Brisbane and Essendon, calling some of his efforts "borderline embarrassing".
"It's about what Joe wants to do," he said.
"He is one of those frustrating players that has never reached his potential. The worry is — is Joe what he is? Is he a five-six goal forward against really poor teams and then one or two against really good teams? If that's the case, then you've got to put structures around him. You can't have two or three in your forward line like that.
"You've got to put guys around him that are going to scrap and fight. I feel sorry for Lincoln McCarthy, he is the opposite. If you've got two or three forwards that don't want to do it, it's really difficult."
What does this mean for the coach?
How quickly things can change in six months.
Had Brisbane won the grand final last September, Chris Fagan would've been immortalised in the club's history alongside the legendary Leigh Matthews.
Now, due to this rough start, Fagan is perhaps the coach most under pressure in the entire competition.
The 62-year-old is currently signed through next season, having penned a contract extension in March last year, but he will be no certainty to see out that contract if the Lions don't see an uptick soon.
"They're not interested anymore in playing for each other, so you've got a coach that would be really worried now," Roos said.
"He's done an amazing job of getting to the finals and reaching the top four in the last four years. I've been through it as a coach, he'd be really worried, really, really worried."
Roos touched on his own experience, where he found himself in a similar spot with his Sydney players in the year they famously won the premiership.
"I remember it was ironically in 2005 around Round 5 against the Eagles and we were in this position," he recalled.
"We were just [playing] selfish football, all playing for ourselves, and I just gave a spray after the game. It wasn't even a spray, it was just the facts. But then to the credit of the Swans [players], they made the decision to reconnect.
"This is about the decision the Brisbane Lions players want to make. Do they still want to play for each other? Do they still want to try and play for a premiership? It's hard work and a lot of it is being selfless. What I'm seeing, particularly from their star players, is garbage, absolute garbage.
"They can do it, but this is not about Chris Fagan now, this is about the players saying, 'We want to get back to the mountain [top]', and they're perfectly capable of doing it."
Where can they start turning things around?
The positive for the Lions is that they've had to slog through a brutal fixture through the first seven weeks of the season.
Of Brisbane's seven opponents, just two currently sit outside the AFL's top eight, one of those is last year's reigning premier, Collingwood which is currently 10th on the ladder.
Having gone through a gauntlet in the first month, the fixture list is about to turn for Brisbane.
This week's QClash against the Gold Coast at home is a must-win, and it is followed by a trip to Adelaide to face the Crows. If the Lions can split those two contests, they face a month featuring clashes against Richmond, Hawthorn, the Western Bulldogs and St Kilda, all very winnable games.
Brisbane has also endured a torrid run of injuries to start the season, with Tom Doedee and Keidean Coleman already ruled out for the remainder of the year.
Will Ashcroft, who tore his ACL last year, is expected to be back by mid-season, while forward spark plug Zac Bailey is likely to be back in a month's time, as is Deven Robertson.
The other positive for Fagan is that Brisbane's work in the midfield still remains prolific.
Despite their struggles, the Lions are still the AFL's best clearance team with 40.7 per contest. Similarly, they rank third in the AFL in contested possessions behind only Carlton and the Gold Coast.
Incredibly, for a team that has struggled to score so far this year, the Lions are second in the league in inside 50s per game, with 57.9 per contest, behind only Port Adelaide. The problems begin when they get the ball inside 50, with the Lions ranking behind only North Melbourne and Hawthorn in scoring shots inside 50 per game.
Brisbane ranks dead last in total goalscorers, with just 15 players hitting the scoreboard so far this year, proof that too much is being left to too few in front of goal. Last year they ranked fifth in this category.
The Lions mauled teams last year by dominating scores from stoppages and turnovers, but so far this year both numbers have dropped at an alarming rate. They've gone from second in the AFL in scores from stoppages to 11th. Similarly, they've dropped from second in the league in scoring from turnovers to second-last ahead of only West Coast.
This weekend's QClash will be the 26th between Brisbane and the Gold Coast, and there has perhaps been none with greater consequences since the two teams first faced off in 2011.
Last season, the Suns snapped a nine-game losing streak by beating their big brother for the first time since 2018. That match took place in the friendly confines of the Carrara Stadium.
This time it's Brisbane that'll be hoping for some home cooking to come in handy against their rivals.
Lose to the Suns at the Gabba for the first time in six years while going 0-4 at home to start the season and the alarm bells will be well and truly ringing.
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