BHP is nearing make-or-break on its multibillion-dollar takeover bid for rival miner Anglo American as the clock counts down to a key regulatory deadline that will require the Australian resources giant to increase its offer, make it binding, or walk away from its prey.

A large investment fund with a substantial stake in BHP believes the company is likely to put a formal binding offer to Anglo’s board before the UK Takeover Panel deadline expires. “They will then stay in the game,” Dominic Mlcek, a portfolio manager at Infinity Asset Management, said.

The mining giant has stalked London-listed Anglo over the past four weeks after making an initial unsolicited $60 billion offer in April, which was swiftly rejected by Anglo’s board.

The global resource company’s unwelcome attention prompted Anglo to bring forward plans for a radical downsizing in which it will offload key coal, platinum and diamond projects – a defensive move unveiled to counter BHP’s second offer, which valued its target at $64.4 billion.

However, BHP’s prospects for a successful takeover are fading fast. The company declined to comment mid-afternoon on Wednesday.

Loading

Its bid triggered provisions in British takeover law giving it until 5pm (UK time) on May 22 (2am on May 23, Australian time) to seal the deal. By that time, it must either convince Anglo to negotiate and ask the UK Takeover Panel for more time to reach a deal, announce a binding offer free of conditions, or walk away.

So far, investors are supporting BHP chief executive Mike Henry’s strategy to seize control of Anglo and its wealth of copper assets, a key commodity for the world’s energy transition.

“It makes sense,” Mlcek said. “We like the Anglo copper assets’ relatively low cost, long life, and opportunity to expand capacity. I guess it all comes down to what’s the right price.”