Struggling renters – especially those in NSW and Queensland – could play a decisive role in the outcome of the next federal election, with key marginal seats now recording some of the worst rental affordability in the country.

New analysis showed tenants were typically spending more than a third of their household income on rent across the Sydney electorates of Fowler, Banks, Robertson, Parramatta and Bennelong.

Tenants spending more than a third of their pay on rent – some of the highest levels in the country – was also the norm in regional NSW seats Cowper, Gilmore and Dobell.

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All were seats currently held on tight margins and were considered swing seats critical for both major parties’ chances at the next election.

Renters queue up at a recent open for inspection. Picture: Sam Ruttyn

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The high proportion of rental spending followed dramatic rises in rental costs, with Bennelong and Parramatta seeing particularly steep rent rises over the past year at about 20 per cent.

Rental rises were about 15-20 per cent in fellow swing seats Wentworth and Reid, according to the Suburb Trends analysis commissioned by MCG Quantity Surveyors.

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Crippling affordability challenges were also prevalent in many interstate swing seats such as Brisbane and Kooyong in Victoria, once the seat of former treasurer Josh Frydenberg.

But NSW, with the highest living costs in the country, held the lion’s share of electorates where rental conditions were strained, including 10 of the 20 seats with the worst affordability in the country measured by rents relative to income. Queensland had six of the 10 electorates with the worst rental affordability.

MCG Quantity Surveyors managing director Mike Mortlock said the analysis showed the gravity of the rental crisis and its potential political ramifications.

Parramatta recorded one of the fastest rent rises in the country. Picture: Damian Shaw

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“(It’s) not just a personal issue for renters but a significant political one that could influence the next federal election,” he said.

Mr Mortlock said as renters in these marginal seats grappled with escalating costs, their voting behaviour may shift.

Co-founder of The Demographics Group Simon Kuestenmacher said the housing crisis would be a difficult issue for big parties to navigate.

“Talk is cheap. Not enough is being done. What is Labor doing? They have an excellent housing target, but how will we get there?

“The Liberal Party is discussing cutting migration to ensure our local workers are in jobs. It’s an assumption that housing becomes cheaper when you take migrants out. Again, this fact is not proven.”

NSW Tenants Union CEO Leo Patterson Ross said renters were expecting key reforms from the political parties. Picture: Jonathan Ng

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The Greens have been making demands for rent freezes in order to give the Albanese government support on key housing bills, but Mr Kuestenmacher noted such policies were risky. “With a rental rent freeze, it’s easy to drive out landlords,” he said.

Federal minister for housing Julie Collins said the government was helping nearly one million Australian households with the cost of rent by delivering the first back-to-back increase to Commonwealth Rent Assistance in more than 30 years.