Loser: The bottom line

Queensland will finish this financial year with a net operating surplus of $564 million, but there is a deficit of $2.63 billion forecast for the year ahead. 

This is due to rising costs, but also largely due to the government's $3.74 billion cost-of-living package (see details further down).

Treasurer Cameron Dick says the good news is the deficit is projected to fall to $515 million the following year.

Revenue growth (including coal royalties) is forecast to fall slightly in 2024-25 and remain "relatively flat" in 2025-26, before rising slightly in 2026-27.

The cost of the government's Big Build infrastructure plan rises over the next four years to $107 billion. 

While several new projects are added to the spend, it also includes cost increases on a range of projects (see infrastructure). 

Winner: Cost of living

One of the most noteworthy items on the government's $3.74 billion spend on cost-of-living measures is the six-month trial of 50 cent fares for trains, buses and ferries from August 5.

There is also $1,000 for every Queenslander to cover electricity bills.

Car registration costs will be cut by 20 per cent from August 5, with owners of privately driven four-cylinder cars expected to save nearly $85 a year.

The cut will remain in place for 12 months at a cost of about $435 million to the budget bottom line.

Treasurer Cameron Dick insists the state is in a good position to offer this and other cost-of-living measures.

"We're not increasing taxes on Queenslanders — the way we are paying for $1,000 energy rebates, our 50 cent public transport fares and now our 20 per cent rego reduction is by our progressive coal royalties," he says.

"It's making sure that those big coal companies that are making record profits give a little bit back to Queensland."

As an added boost, all government fees and charges are being frozen for 2024-25.

Winner: Public Transport

It's old news now, but it's worth repeating — fares for all Translink public transport services will drop to 50c per trip for six months from August 5.

Airtrain fares to Brisbane Airport will also be cut in half for the six months of the trial.

There is $150 million set aside in this budget to cover the cost, but it could end up being higher if the move proves particularly popular.

Of course, given the trial doesn't finish until after the October state election, it may not be a Miles government that has the final say on whether it continues.

Winner: Infrastructure

The Miles government is committing $107 billion to its growing list of major infrastructure projects, including what Treasurer Cameron Dick says is "the biggest hospital-building program in the country".

Road and rail spending is high on the list, with more than 1,000 road and transport projects underway, including improvements to the Bruce Highway.

Building continues on the Beerburrum to Nambour rail line, and Mr Dick last week acknowledged the cost of the Logan-Gold Coast Faster Rail scheme had risen by $3.2 billion.

Transport and Main Roads Minister Bart Mellish says costs have increased on a range of projects.

"Like all infrastructure projects across Australia, our program is facing cost pressure challenges going forward," he says.

"Increased construction costs, limited labour supply, extreme weather events are all playing their part in these."

Loser: Coal companies

With global coal prices outperforming the conservative forecasts in last year's state budget, coal royalties have proven once again to be higher than expected.

Coal miners added $10.54 billion to the state's coffers in 2023-24 — nearly twice the figure predicted in last year's budget and significantly higher than the $9.18 billion forecast in the December budget update.

This is once more due to the state's tiered royalty rates, which rise when coal sells above the long-term average price.

The Queensland Resources Council has just launched its latest campaign in the ongoing war against the state's coal royalty regime, highlighting "the damage being done to their businesses and jobs by the world’s highest coal royalty taxes".

But Treasurer Dick argues mining profits are still 48 per cent higher than "other industries", even after progressive royalties came into effect, and that 44,800 people currently work in the Queensland coal industry. 

Neutral: Health

Hospital activity is predicted to grow by 4.9 per cent a year over the next five years. This is driven by population growth, ageing and increasing medical complexity in patient needs. 

The health budget will grow by 10.6 per cent in 2024-25 (the historical growth average is 6.9 per cent), and spending rises by $4.39 billion over the forward estimates to 2027-28.

In 2024-25 alone, the total health spend will be $28.9 billion.

Work continues on the hospital capacity expansion program, aimed at delivering 2,200 extra beds by 2028.

The program receives a $1 billion funding boost in 2024-25.

A state opposition spokesman argues the program has "blown out" by $1.4 billion from $9.78 billion in last year's budget to $11.21 billion, with no extra beds delivered.

The 2032 health workforce strategy injects $1.7 billion over four years into a plan aiming to deliver more than 700 extra doctors, more than 2,600 nurses and midwives and more than 1,000 allied health staff.

There is an extra $220 million over the forward estimates for women's and girls' health and $210 million for First Nations people's health programs.

There will also be a $24 million program to incentivise trainee doctors to train as GPs.

Winner: First home buyers

Extra concessions on stamp duty are on offer to first home buyers in 2024-25.

No duty will be payable on first homes up to a value of $700,000 and a partial concession will be offered on a sliding scale for places worth $700,000 to 800,000.

This lifts the concession threshold significantly above the current ceiling of $550,000.

On a $700,000 property, this is a saving of $17,350.

It's estimated this will benefit about 10,000 first home buyers a year at a total cost of $360 million over the next four years.

It's being offset by a boost to foreign investor land tax and the foreign acquirer duty (see below).

Loser: Housing supply

This budget comes amid what Treasurer Cameron Dick calls the "extraordinary impact of population growth".

People are moving to Queensland far more quickly than predicted.

In the 12 months to last September, Queensland's population grew by 144,000 people, the biggest annual increase in history. About 88,000 arrived from overseas and about 32,000 moved from interstate.

While this is contributing to economic growth, it is also a major cause of the state's housing crisis, particularly in relation to the ongoing shortage and rising cost of rental accommodation.

It also requires greater expenditure in government services to meet the demands of more people.

"We have gone through, and may still be going through, the biggest influx of population we have ever seen," Mr Dick says.

Meanwhile, this year's budget outlook points out the construction sector remains under pressure because "labour supply shortages remain a problem" and construction firms are continuing to fail at an elevated rate. 

On the plus side, there is $2.8 billion committed in 2024-25 targeted at housing and homelessness.

Among other things, this will fund construction of 600 new modular homes, under the Homes for Queenslanders plan.

Modular homes are built in a factory and then delivered to where they're needed and can be built in weeks instead of months.

These will be sent to Bundaberg, Innisfail, Mackay and Warwick as well as several other more remote locations.

Winner: The regions

In 2024-25, $18.57 billion will be spent on infrastructure projects outside Greater Brisbane. The treasurer says this will directly support about 50,000 jobs.

"It is the biggest building program to be delivered in regional Queensland ever," Mr Dick says.

Over the next four years of the forward estimates, this includes $2.1 billion for Direct Sunshine Coast Rail; $1.365 billion for Homes for Queenslanders; and $1.7 billion for the 2032 Olympics and Paralympics.

Work also continues on the Coomera Connector, stage three of Gold Coast Light Rail and the hospital expansion.

Winner: Electricity Bills

There is $1,000 credit for Queensland household electricity bills this financial year, to be applied directly to bills.

Around 205,000 eligible small businesses will also have $650 taken off their power bills, co-funded by the Queensland and federal governments. 

These measures will cost the Queensland government $2.96 billion in 2024-25.

That's nearly twice the relief for power bills that's being paid out this financial year. 

Premier Steven Miles says he expects the higher rebate to mean "most Queensland households won't pay an electricity bill in the third quarter of this year".

Loser: Property investors

Land tax revenue is projected to grow by 23 per cent in 2024-25 to $2.5 billion.

This is largely driven by increases in property prices and won't be welcome news for mum and dad property investors.

At the same time, land tax for foreign investors will increase from 2 to 3 per cent, a move estimated to generate an extra $330 million over four years.

The foreign acquirer duty will rise from 7 to 8 per cent, which is expected to bring in $90 million over four years.

These extra funds from foreign investors will offset the government's boost to first home buyer concessions.

Winner: Women

There is $118 million in extra funding for the domestic, family and sexual violence sector to support frontline services and violence-protection programs.

That comes on top of a $36 million commitment to the DFSV sector announced in April.

The spending has been made recurrent, guaranteeing funds for the sector for the foreeable future.

It's a move welcomed by the co-chair of Ending Violence Against Women and Children Queensland, Amie Carrington.

"Recurring funding ensures increased sustainability for our specialist workforce," she says.