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Posted: 2024-06-16 22:44:54

 Just a bit more on the wobbles in France triggered by the snap election called by President Macron last week.

The main French index the CAC40 ended the week down more than 6% after Friday's 2.7% fall.

The biggest banks have been hammered – BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole and Societe Generale all fell between 12 and 16% over the week.

The sense of anxiety was ratcheted up with Mr Macron's Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire warning France faced the risk of a financial crisis if either the far right or left won the coming parliamentary election because of their heavy spending plans.

On cue, the latest opinion polls have the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) in front (29.5%), followed closely by a newly-formed leftist alliance of Socialists and Greens (28.5%) with Mr Macron's centrist Renaissance party hobbling along in third place (18%).

Both the RN and new popular front have pretty big ideas about spending, but not exactly open about where the money will come from.

That's a sure-fire trigger for the bond vigilantes to sense risk and jack up bond rates and borrowing costs.

It hasn't happened yet, but some bond traders are muttering about a similar situation to the ill-fated budget of very short-term former British PM Liz Truss.

"In an extreme case, the risks could include a Liz-Truss-style blowout in yield spreads," Holger Schmieding, chief economist at private bank Berenberg, told Reuters.

Britain's 10-year yield jumped over 100 basis points (bps) in less than a week during its budget crisis, while France's rose a modest 6 bps last week.

All this assumes, someone actually taking control in France.

No party is likely to garner enough votes to win an absolute majority, and the only thing they agree on is they would form a "block" to stop the others gaining control of the National Assembly.

That has prompted each to claim it will form a "block" to prevent the others winning power in the National Assembly.

As the ghost of editor and journalist Alphonse Karr would mutter, "plus ça va change, plus c'est la meme chose."

A classique French stand-off.

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