Add Category
As concerns are raised (again) about possible gas supply shortages on Australia's east coast, Josh Runciman, the lead LNG and gas financial analyst from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), has issued this little statement:
"AEMO's forecasts show that gas demand on the east coast is already falling quicker than previously expected.
"However, gas demand isn't falling as quickly as gas supply, which is why AEMO is warning of supply gaps.
"Our research has found that Governments can help to lower gas demand even more by helping households and industry electrify, which could eliminate the risks of supply gaps if we act soon enough.
"Households will also benefit from lower energy bills."
Stories about looming gas supply shortages on Australia's east coast should always have a version of the below graphic attached to them.
It shows the amount of Australia exports (which accounts for the bulk of the gas we produce), and how little is set aside for residential and manufacturing use:
As explained in Geoscience Australia's Energy Commodity Resources 2023, Australia is a substantial net exporter of natural gas:
"In 2020–21, about 75 per cent of Australian produced natural gas was exported as LNG.
"Over the past decade, LNG exports from Australia have increased by an average of 15 per cent a year, with several new facilities commencing production during this period.
"During 2021 Australia’s increase in LNG exports was the seventh highest in the world, after Egypt, the United States, United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Oman and Malaysia.
"In 2021–22 Australia’s LNG exports reached a record high of 4,528 PJ (83.2 Mt), maintaining our status as the world’s largest LNG exporter.
"The high LNG prices incentivised many LNG facilities to operate at or above nameplate capacity. In 2022, Australia’s LNG export earnings reached $90 billion, up 82 per cent from 2021.
"Nearly all of Australia’s LNG exports were delivered to Asian markets in 2020–21.
"Japan accounted for 41 per cent (equivalent to 34.1 Mt), followed by China (33 per cent, equivalent to 27.2 Mt) and the Republic of Korea (13 per cent, equivalent to 11.2 Mt."