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Posted: 2024-08-22 21:50:20

The art of team building in any sport is all about staying ahead of the curve. 

Clubs that are pro-active in the way they construct their lists are often the best, the poorer-performing clubs tend to react to the way better clubs do business. This happens in most sporting codes in the world, and the AFL is no different.

In 2024, each of the AFL's 18 clubs had between 35 and 39 players on its list, with an additional four to nine listed as rookies. 

While all teams have access to the same recruitment rules, either via trades or free agency or through the various drafts, the way they build their lists varies significantly. 

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Clubs such as Essendon, Collingwood, Carlton or Richmond tend to use the lure of marquee matches at the MCG in front of packed crowds as a means to lure free agents from smaller clubs. 

Other clubs who may not have the allure of mass marquee fixtures tend to use the different draft systems more. Geelong has regularly excelled at adding talent through the rookie draft, for example, while Carlton has built its success off the back of nailing high picks in the national draft. 

Tasmania's pending arrival into the AFL later this decade will dilute the draft for a few years, and teams will once again have to get more creative around their recruitment, as they did when the Gold Coast Suns and the GWS Giants entered the league. 

For every lever the league pulls, there is a reaction that comes down the line. This has been especially evident in free agency. 

When free agency arrived at the end of the 2012 season, it was no surprise Essendon was one of the first teams to capitalise by using its significant sway to lure Brendon Goddard from St Kilda. 

A few years later, clubs reacted to the arrival of free agency by deciding to trade players with a few years left on their deals, 'pre-agents' who they figured could fetch a greater return for on the trade market as opposed to what the AFL's convoluted free agency compensation system would reward them with.

A Western Bulldogs AFL player pumps his right fist during a 2023 match.

Bulldogs star Aaron Naughton is one of a number of players in the AFL who are signed through to the next decade. (Getty Images: Dylan Burns)

In recent years, clubs have placed great importance in keeping their best players away from approaching free agency by signing them to lucrative long-term deals. 

We are not even halfway into this decade, and players such as Sydney's Nick Blakey (contract signed until 2031), Port Adelaide's Connor Rozee (2032) and the Bulldogs' Aaron Naughton (2032) are already signed into the next decade. 

Locking in your best players is great, but for every Lance Franklin and Dustin Martin, there are dozens of players who often don't see the end of their big-money extensions. 

That brings us to what appears to be the next wave of recruitment — something we'd like to refer to as the 'post-agent'. 

The post-agent is not just where your mail goes. An unintended consequence of teams signing players to lengthy extensions of five or more years is that often the money committed on these deals can leave teams cash-strapped in the years that follow the signature. 

Suddenly, a player who was greatly desired by a club before being rewarded with a monster deal becomes expendable a couple of years into the new contract. The result? The player being available for cents on the dollar in a trade, essentially as a salary dump. 

How Western Bulldogs and Sydney benefited from 'post-agent' trades

At the end of the 2020 season, Collingwood determined that its salary cap was in dire straits and embarked on a fire sale during the trade period. 

The most appealing of all the players they were willing to let go was star midfielder Adam Treloar, who the club had only recently signed to a four-year extension that would see him remain a Magpie through the 2025 season.

Treloar had earned the lucrative extension from the Magpies in 2019 after putting up career-best numbers of 32.9 disposals and 5.9 clearances per game. 

That same year, the Bulldogs found themselves in their own trade drama after Josh Dunkley requested a trade to Essendon. 

Incredibly, the Bulldogs not only retained Dunkley after Essendon refused to blink in a trade stand-off, but they also added Treloar, parting ways with a first-round selection in the 2020 draft and a second-round pick in 2021. The Pies used the 2020 first-rounder to draft Ollie Henry. 

Adam Treloar gives a thumbs up during a match

The shrewd addition of Adam Treloar during the 2020 trade period has been a masterstroke for the Bulldogs. (Getty Images: Michael Willson)

The return Collingwood received in return for Treloar paled in comparison to what they paid to bring him to the club in a trade with the GWS Giants in 2015. 

Collingwood parted ways with two first-round picks, one in 2015 and one in 2016 in a trade for Treloar. The pick the Pies gave up in 2015 ended up landing at No.9, and a few selections later Carlton selected Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow. The 2016 selection landed in at No.8 and was eventually used by Fremantle to select Griffin Logue.

Four years on from the deal, the move to grab Treloar looks like a masterstroke from the Western Bulldogs. Not only have the Dogs gotten themselves an elite midfielder, they've got him on terms well below his market value, given Collingwood is still paying approximately $300,000 of the $900,000 he is owed annually. Good luck getting a player of Treloar's ability for $600,000 on the open market now. 

In 20 appearances so far this season, Treloar has averaged 32 disposals and a hair below six clearances, right in line with his career-best numbers. His ability to run and carry from stoppages has added a new dimension to the Bulldogs' midfield that has suddenly started humming, and he's proved himself to be an excellent foil for Bulldogs skipper Marcus Bontempelli. 

The cap squeeze that forced Treloar out stemmed from Collingwood's decision to break the bank to secure the services of two-time All-Australian ruckman Brodie Grundy at the end of 2019. 

Coming off two outstanding seasons, Grundy's camp used the lure of the South Australian native joining Adelaide to get Collingwood to agree to a whopping seven-year extension for a total of approximately $7 million over the duration of the contract. 

While Grundy still remained an excellent ruckman after signing the deal, his extension became the example of poor salary cap management. 

Grundy was just two years into his seven-year extension when he was deemed surplus to requirements at Collingwood, as the club looked to reshuffle his money elsewhere having made an unlikely run to a preliminary final while he was sidelined through injury in 2022. 

Melbourne had the right idea trading for Grundy, believing the combination of he and skipper Max Gawn could potentially be the greatest ruck tandem of all time, but the pair did not work well together. 

Twelve months later, the Sydney Swans were the major beneficiary, acquiring him from the Demons for virtually nothing — pick 46 in last year's draft and a second-round pick in this year's draft. 

The trade has been a massive win for the Swans so far. Grundy's arrival has supercharged a dynamic Swans midfield, and his numbers of 18.2 disposals, 32.2 hit-outs and 4.9 clearances per game have him in contention for an All-Australian jacket.

Like they have been with Treloar, Collingwood is still footing some of the bill for Grundy's salary of approximately $1 million this season, with the Swans on the hook for roughly $700,000, again, well below what Grundy's actual market value would be. 

The next batch of fallen stars that could be had for cheap

Treloar and Grundy's success at their new clubs shows that one team's trash can truly be another team's treasure, and teams would be wise to explore fallen stars around the league. 

Ironically, Treloar's arrival at the Bulldogs has forced one of their previous midfield mainstays, Jack Macrae, to suddenly become the odd man out in a high-powered Dogs engine room. 

It seems like he's been around forever, which makes it hard to believe that Macrae has only just turned 30. 

Between 2018 and 2022, Macrae averaged in excess of 30 disposals per game every season except for one, a COVID-impacted 2020 season where he averaged 26.4 disposals per game in shortened quarters. 

Jack Macrae of the Bulldogs and Darcy Parish of the Bombers compete for the ball

Bulldogs star Jack Macrae is likely to be at a new club next season after falling down the pecking order. (AFL Photos via Getty Images: Michael Willson)

Macrae has averaged just 18.8 touches per game in 17 appearances in 2024, his lowest mark since his debut season, and will be highly likely to search for another club to continue his career at over the summer. 

Don't be surprised if he joins a rival club and racks up an astounding amount of the football next season. Any team that is devoid of quality midfielders should be hunting the three-time All-Australian, who is signed through the 2027 season. 

One of Macrae's 2016 premiership teammates, Caleb Daniel, should also be on the radar of rival clubs. 

An All-Australian in 2020, the diminutive defender has also fallen out of favour with Luke Beveridge this season, playing just 14 games. 

Victorian clubs are expected to hunt Port Adelaide's Dan Houston this season, with the All-Australian defender reportedly seeking a move back to his home state. 

AFL player celebrates during a match

Bulldogs defender Caleb Daniel looms as a smart buy-low option for teams looking for classy ball users. (Getty: Dylan Burns)

However, with Port Adelaide expected to ask for a monster trade haul in return, Daniel might be a suitable bargain option. 

Daniel is signed through until the end of the 2026 season, and will be a valuable addition to any team looking for a classy ball-user in its back half who can also pinch hit in the midfield on occasion — he is 12 months removed from a season where he averaged 23.4 disposals and 3.3 clearances per game.

That brings us to the ultimate high-risk, high-reward target for clubs this summer — Melbourne's Clayton Oliver

The Demons have been adamant that Oliver, who is signed through 2030, won't be moved in a trade, but we've seen stranger things happen in the league. 

Melbourne needs to rejuvenate its list and could potentially flip Oliver in a bid to free up some cap space and get creative. 

Oliver at his best can walk into just about any midfield unit in the competition. He is one of the game's most ferocious clearance players and is a three-time All-Australian for a reason. 

Clayton Oliver runs with the football against Adelaide

Melbourne is adamant Clayton Oliver won't be traded, but could a rival club pry him away for cents on the dollar?  (AAP: Matt Turner)

However, the 27-year-old is coming off his worst statistical year since his first season in the AFL, and concerns about his lifestyle off the field are very real. 

Like Grundy at Collingwood, Oliver is believed to be on roughly $1 million per season, meaning Melbourne would likely have to foot some of the bill if he is moved to another club. 

Teams considering whether to add Oliver should ask themselves two questions - Is our culture good enough to absorb a player like Oliver? Is the poor statistical return in 2024 an aberration or a sign of things to come? 

It may not necessarily be this season, but Victorian clubs will have one eye on how long Fremantle is willing to continue playing both Sean Darcy and Luke Jackson in the same side. 

This ruck combination works better than most due to Jackson's ability to be damaging while playing as a key forward, but there will surely come a time where he is ready to assume full-time ruck responsibilities.

Sean Darcy pictured in action for Fremantle

Rival clubs will be wise to kick the tyres on Sean Darcy's availability over the next few seasons. (Getty Images: Paul Kane)

That leaves Darcy, signed through 2030, as potentially the odd man out at Fremantle. 

Make no mistake about it, Darcy still remains a big part of Fremantle's future and there have been no indications that he will ask out, but rival clubs would be wise to monitor the situation.

Ruckmen develop late, and at just 26, Darcy is set to come into his prime years and could become one of the game's best big men. 

Geelong has had a ruck void for over a decade now since Brad Ottens rode off into the sunset. The Cats would dearly love to bring Darcy, a Geelong Falcons junior, over to the club. 

Darcy signed a six-year extension at the end of last year, but has endured a tough season in 2024, managing just 12 games and averaging just 12.4 disposals and 31.2 hit-outs per game, his lowest marks in both stat categories since 2020.

That brings us to our final player on this list — Gold Coast's Jack Lukosius

The Suns, namely senior coach Damien Hardwick, have talked tough to this point about Lukosius being moved, but the fact of the matter is this — the No.2 pick from the 2018 draft doesn't appear at this stage to be in Hardwick's first-choice side. 

Lukosius is only two years removed from signing a four-year extension with the Suns, a deal he signed while turning down significant interest from his home state in South Australia. 

A Gold Coast AFL player gets a pat on the back from his teammates after kicking a goal.

Jack Lukosius could go from celebrating against the Crows to potentially celebrating for the Crows in the coming years. (Getty images: AFL Photos/Dylan Burns)

Having poached his former teammate Izak Rankine, the Crows will no doubt come sniffing again this summer around Lukosius' situation to test the Suns' resolve. 

The 24-year-old hasn't quite hit the heights expected of him in his six seasons at the AFL level so far, partly due to a lack of clarity around where his best position is. 

Lukosius spent his first four seasons in defence, operating as a poor man's version of Lachie Whitfield as he roamed around halfback looking to cut teams apart with his kicking. 

He was sent forward last season and kicked 39 goals in 22 appearances, and has followed that up with 21 in 20 outings this season.

 

The Suns may have not gotten the best out of Lukosius so far, but the talented swingman has all the makings of a player who absolutely pops on the right team at some point in his career.

It is all well and good to nominate these players as potential targets, but acquiring them is no easy task. 

AFL clubs are increasingly more well-run nowadays and it is hard to truly fleece someone in a trade deal. 

Clubs are always reluctant to give up on players they've invested heavily in, either financially through a long-term deal or in terms of draft capital. 

No one wants to be the club that gave up too early on a player, only to go and see them thrive at their next stop.

But it has happened before and will no doubt happen again. And the teams that are constantly able to capitalise on these savvy moves on the margins are usually the ones at the pointy end of the ladder.

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