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The ABC's election analyst Antony Green says tonight's likely result is a Country Liberal Party win.
He tells ABC Radio Darwin that "the CLP can get" to the 13 seats needed to win a majority.
"There will be a swing against the government," he says.
"The question is whether [the CLP] just get there or whether they go a bit beyond that.
"There's a whole bunch of reasons why you'd think the government could lose badly if things go wrong."
Mr Green says a CLP path to victory would start with the party holding two seats it won by less than 25 votes at the 2020 election — Barkly and Namatjira.
"I haven't seen anything in the pre-poll voting and the remote polling to indicate something [is] changing [in those two seats]," he says.
"They'd want to win Daly back, they'd love to win Goyder if they can defeat the independent [Belinda Kolstad].
"Then you get into Darwin, you get to Blain and Drysdale — if the CLP pick up those and they pick up Port Darwin and Fong Lim, they're getting to 12 seats, then they have to get a 13th seat beyond that."
In a scenario where the CLP only picks up 12 seats, Mr Green says the party would likely form government with support from conservative independent and former CLP MLA Robyn Lambley.