With just five weeks until another election, Antony Green is dusting off his record books.

Metaphorically, not literally, of course. The ABC's chief election analyst does everything digitally.

But history is about to be made in the nation's capital, no matter what happens on voting day in five weeks' time.

"It's become a bit one-sided in the ACT," Antony Green says.

Few people outside the Canberra region will care about the local ACT election.

However, for political junkies this one may be akin to an obscure game of English county cricket.

While the consequences at a national level will be minimal — or arguably non-existent — new records may soon be set.

The 22-year-old government

ACT Labor won power on October 20, 2001. 

By any measure, the party's nearly 23 years in office is already an unusually long stint.

Another win would take it to 27 years and only a few others have done that.

"Three that come to mind are governments led mostly by Thomas Playford in South Australia, Henry Bolte in Victoria and Joh Bjelke-Petersen in Queensland," Green says.

The Liberal and Country League in South Australia held office for nearly 32 years from 1933 to 1965, while in Queensland the Country — later National — Party Premier Joh Bjelke-Petersen helped keep Labor in opposition between 1957 and 1989.

The terms "Playmander" and "Bjeklemander" — a reference to gerrymandering — will pop up at some point if you delve into these chapters of Australian state political history.

In Victoria, the Liberals held office between 1955 and 1982 and at a federal level the Coalition were in power for 23 years between 1949 and 1972, mostly under Robert Menzies.

"That was a much quieter political period in the post-war era since you got those sorts of governments," Antony Green said.

Andrew Barr is now the ACT's longest serving Chief Minister.

He became a cabinet Minister in April 2006 when John Howard was in The Lodge and got the top job of chief minister when Tony Abbott was in office in December 2014.

He's also the only remaining state or territory leader to have sat around the virtual national cabinet table during the early days of the pandemic, an experience his colleagues and opponents believe motivated him to keep going.

Although the population of Canberra is often assumed to be politically engaged, few think deeply about the Legislative Assembly.

It is the only parliament in the country responsible for both state — well, territory — responsibilities and local government services.

When they do take an interest, Canberrans — at least those who call, text and email the ABC — are often most concerned about things like rates, roads and rubbish.

Some in the Opposition — the Canberra Liberals — have despaired at their situation. 

A few describe themselves privately as "perpetually pessimistic" about their prospects.

The last Liberal chief minister of the ACT, Gary Humphries, has even jokingly compared himself to Nicholas II, the last tsar of Russia, who was executed in 1918 after the Bolsheviks seized power.

For those unfamiliar with Russian history, he's comparing successive Labor-Green ACT governments to the Soviet Union in a tongue-in-cheek way.

But he is also making a more serious point that retaking power will be very difficult for the Canberra Liberals.

In Canberra, the crossbench is almost always the key

Given Labor's dominance, casual observers of ACT politics are sometimes surprised to learn that there's only been one majority government in the capital.

That was a special case — it was elected not long after the traumatic Canberra bushfires.

The rarity of majority government in the ACT is partly due to the Hare-Clark electoral system the territory uses.

The same system is used in Tasmania and it's similar to the method used to elect senators at a federal level.

Twenty-five members are elected to the ACT Legislative Assembly on a proportional basis with five members coming from five electorates.

Put simply, if the major parties get a primary vote somewhere in the mid-30s, they expect to roughly get between nine and 11 seats each.

Thirteen votes are required to pass laws and this means whoever fills the remaining few seats on the crossbench plays a key role in deciding who governs.

For the past 20 years, the only crossbenchers elected have been Greens and that has been especially bad for the Canberra Liberals.

Officially the Greens insist they are open to working with everyone.

But in reality, there is almost no chance they will do a deal with the Liberals.

With a majority unlikely, Opposition Leader Elizabeth Lee needs to hope that at least a couple of new crossbenchers are elected and snatch the balance of power.

Independents are the Canberra Liberals' best hope

This year, there does seem to be a better chance of an expanded crossbench.

A variety of independents or groups are running campaigns, some of them inspired by the success of Wallabies star-turned-Senator David Pocock.

His triumph at the 2022 federal election was a disaster for the Canberra Liberals.

It cost the party its only representative in the federal parliament — the main focal point of the city that it is trying to run.

But this October, independents might – only might – help the ACT Opposition.

Some are running because they want more services in their area. Perhaps they can be wooed with promises of pools or community facilities?

Others are standing because they want to change the chief minister.

"The problem [independents] have is how well known are they? David Pocock was very well known in the ACT," Green says.

"Perhaps Fiona Carrick in Murrumbidgee has a high local profile … maybe Mr [Tom] Emerson in Kurrajong, that's it.

However, it's not entirely clear what a successful independent would mean.

For example, they might also take votes off the Canberra Liberals and even if they don't, several independent candidates call themselves "progressive" and might not back the opposition's policies.

'The Liberals are stuck'

Ultimately, Elizabeth Lee's best chance to win office is by simply boosting her party's primary vote by a lot and then hoping a few other results fall her way.

Currently, Labor holds ten seats to the Liberals' nine, making things sound close.

But when you add in the Greens, the left-right ideological split is 16 to nine.

"The Labor Party and the Greens, while they are competing for a seat often, if one of them misses out they usually help the other party win — Labor for a third seat [in an electorate] or the Greens for a first seat," Green says.

"The Liberals are stuck, struggling to get beyond two [seats in each electorate], they've occasionally got three in Brindabella, and their vote is traditionally lower than Labor.

Unless it is very close, the rough outcome of the election should be known quite early in the evening on Saturday October 19.

By the time the sun goes down at 7:22pm, about three-quarters of the first preference votes should be counted.

That will give us a decent idea if Labor's record 23 years in power in the ACT has been extended, or if the Liberals have finally ended their long period in the political wilderness.