Geelong’s off-the-plan suburbs are offering the best chance for people to shop for a new home, according to data that reveals the best buyers’ markets.
The SuburbData figures revealed the suburbs where an the biggest supply of homes for sale tips the scales – and prices – in favour of buyers.
The figures show more than 4 per cent of the total housing stock in Mount Duneed and Armstrong Creek were on the market, underlining the incredible choice for homebuyers.
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The data shows more than 100 houses are for sale in Mount Duneed, representing 4.4 per cent of nearly 3000 existing homes.
The median house price in the suburb is $705,000, according to PropTrack.
Armstrong Creek has some 250 houses selling out of a total of almost 5400 homes, where the median house price is $660,000.
Houses spend just 34 days on the market on average in Armstrong Creek, 10 fewer days than the typical sale across the entire city, PropTrack data from sales in the 12 months to September shows.
Armstrong Creek is Geelong’s biggest market with more than 250 homes selling in the past year. But the median house price had slipped 3.4 per cent in that time.
The supply of existing, near-new houses for sale adds to new house and land packages, and new residential blocks where developers are offering thousands of dollars in rebates and incentives.
Meanwhile inner-city hotspots have been identified as the best buyers markets for units, led by central Geelong, where there are 44 apartments for sale, or 2.5 per cent of total stock in the city centre.
The figures underline how creating more housing supply relative to demand can provide a dampener on prices.
Geelong buyer’s advocate Tony Slack said most hopeful purchasers didn’t need help finding a home in Armstrong Creek, given the choice.
“It’s a predictable market with not a lot of variables,” he said.
“You can even value properties down to a few thousand dollars because there is so much to compare to.
“And if you miss one, just like the sun’s going to come up tomorrow, more often than not, there’ll be something else for you to buy.”
McGrath, Armstrong Creek agent Sam Parsons said homebuyers can spend up to six months deciding what is their perfect home in the suburb.
“There’s often quite a fair few homes with a very similar floorplan, very similar inclusions at a similar price in the newer suburbs,” he said.
“Where they’re looking at Newtown or Geelong West or wherever, very rarely are there two identical.
“So the buyer behaviour means that they’re a little bit more consuming, in terms of taking their time and viewing many more open homes before they put in an offer.”
Just as an oversupply helps people when they buy, it can also hurt when they sell, SuburbData analyst Jeremy Sheppard said.
Historical data indicated most markets had an even balance between supply and demand when about 1 per cent of the total housing in the suburb was available for sale.
Mr Sheppard said suburbs oversupplied with housing could be a trap for new buyers because it would take many years until home values rose.
“Ideally, when it’s your first home you still want a bit of equity locked in soon after your purchase. Without that equity you have fewer options as an owner if things ever go wrong.”
Mr Slack said buyers should stay in their home at least three to four years before expecting to see capital growth in Armstrong Creek or Mount Duneed.
In more established areas, where a lower proportion of homes go on the market, it’s one to two years, he said.
“You wouldn’t be buying in those markets thinking this is a stepping stone in a couple of years, because with the cost of buying and selling and being really mindful that to be able to enjoy some level of growth, you need to be in that market for a lot longer than you would other suburbs.”
But that didn’t mean people couldn’t upgrade within the suburbs that will eventually host some 65,000 people, as the competition for buyers would be the same across the corridor.
“If you’re wanting to to stay for the short term in a more modest property and then as time goes on upgrade to a larger property, larger land, larger residence, keep in mind that it would probably still work okay if you’re prepared to stay in that market,” Mr Slack said.
“But as a buyer, how can you help protect your investment if you buy out there. That’s buy something that had a little bit of a uniqueness about something that had a bit of a twist.”
That includes a larger land size that a typica , a water or park frontage, a custom-designed house or with the extras added on.
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