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Brisbane suburbs where you can beat the rush to buy

Posted: 2024-09-13 19:30:00

Original link: https://www.realestate.com.au/news/brisbane-suburbs-where-you-can-beat-the-rush-to-buy/

Dozens of Queensland suburbs where buyers have the upper hand and can not only purchase within their budget but also avoid fierce competition have been revealed.

Data from analytics firm SuburbData highlighted the state’s 23 most oversupplied pockets, typically greenfield areas, including 14 in Greater Brisbane.

Each location had more than three per cent of its total stock currently on the market. Some had more than 3000 dwellings for sale, including Greenbank, in Logan, and Banksia Beach, near Bribie Island.

Nikenbah in Hervey Bay topped the list of oversupplied suburbs

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Median house prices in Greater Brisbane’s top five most oversupplied suburbs were between $749,700 (Ripley) and $1.29m (Chambers Flat).

Nikenbah in Hervey Bay had the highest proportion of homes on the market (8.3 per cent), followed by Walloon (7.1 per cent), Ripley (6.1 per cent), and South Maclean (5.5 per cent).

Two Gold Coast suburbs were also listed – Hope Island and Jacobs Well – along with Parramatta Park and Palm Cove (Cairns), Eumundi (Sunshine Coast), Mackay, and Coral Cove (Bundaberg).

Buyers also had plenty of choice in the Cairns resort enclave of Palm Cove

Two Gold Coast suburbs were listed – Hope Island and Jacobs Well, along with Parramatta Park and Palm Cove (Cairns), Eumundi (Sunshine Coast), Mackay, and Coral Cove (Bundaberg).

A benchmark of a balanced market – where demand and supply are evenly matched — is one per cent of total housing up for sale. More than two per cent usually shows the supply of housing exceeds the number of people looking to buy, according to SuburbData analyst Jeremy Sheppard.

Most Queensland suburbs remained severely undersupplied, as listings slowly recover from their post-pandemic freefall amid huge interstate migration and construction slowdown.

Jeremy Sheppard of SuburbData

Mr Sheppard said while new buyers may find more opportunities in oversupplied areas, they risked being trapped for years before home values rose and falling into negative equity — where their debt was more than the property’s worth.

Flat or falling values would limit new homeowners’ ability to easily leave the suburb without losing money.

“In the more extreme cases, it could take up to a decade for that excess housing supply to be absorbed and for values to return to normal,” Mr Sheppard said.

“And so while some of these areas could be good for first-home buyers, in a competition sense, they are also difficult markets to leave.

“Ideally, when it’s your first home you still want a bit of equity locked in soon after your purchase. Without that equity you have fewer options as an owner if things ever go wrong.”

Hope Island on the Gold Coast was included as an oversupplied suburb

Buyers agent Lloyd Edge, of Aus Property Professionals, said oversupply was of more concern for investors.

“If you are buying as an investment in an area where there are so many houses being built at the same time, it means there is no scarcity and that is going to put downward pressure on prices when you go to sell the property because there is so much choice for buyers,” he said.

“It’s the same when you to rent it — you risk ending up with the property sitting vacant for a much longer time before you can rent it out.”

REA listings show hundreds of house-and-land packages from $604,690 available in new estates in the Logan and Ipswich areas, including Jimboomba, Logan Reserve, Greenbank, Walloon and Ripley.

Buyers’ agent Lloyd Edge, of Aus Property Professionals

Mr Sheppard said developers sometimes overestimated demand to live in new locations where limited historical data existed.

“The nature of the development industry also means it’s more profitable for developers to take on large projects. And if there are a few different competitors doing them at the same time, there can be oversupply,” he said.

“These can be great markets to buy into if all you care about is getting a roof over your head, but as far as equity is concerned they can be more dangerous than mining towns.

“The issue for a homeowner in these areas is that there will often still be lots of land nearby that can be developed and likely will be developed, so these markets can be hard to justify as an investment.”

This four-bedroom, two-bathroom home in Ripley sold in an area with an abundance of land release for new housing

Total listings in Brisbane were up 7.3 per cent in August to 18,224, an annual increase of 3.3 per cent, according to SQM Research figures.

The city also recorded a 25 per cent annual decline in older listings (more than 180 days), compared the the national trend showing a 15 per cent increase since 2023.

Real Estate Institute of Queensland CEO Antonia Mercorella said the seasonal lift would be “easily absorbed”.

“We don’t have anywhere near enough properties to meet the immense demand, and so it remains very much a seller’s market in Queensland,” Ms Mercorella said.

“Buyers are facing challenges such as an incredibly competitive marketplace, very low days on market, and property prices continually on the rise.

“Affordability issues are front and centre for many buyers, and we’ve seen some signs that budget constraints are kicking in with growth in the unit market overtaking the housing market. However, as we inch closer to a potential interest rate cut, we would expect demand to hold firm.”