It is not too hard to find Canberrans who say they are thinking about voting independent at next month's ACT election.

Sure, a few are referring to a specific individual.

But if you randomly quiz people — something the ABC does from time to time — it is not unusual to find knowledge of the independent candidates standing this year is relatively low.

When I ask: can they name one in their electorate? Often, the answer is no.

Or if I query what different policies define their local independent, often, not many spring to mind.

A few would-be independent voters seem to be thinking about voting independent in the same way someone might think about voting Labor, Canberra Liberals or Greens. You know — supporting a candidate who is standing under a broadly-known brand, the sort promoted at a federal level by the so-called "teals".

Now, this approach is deeply unscientific. Straw polls are inaccurate and tell you little about the overall voting intention of a city.

And yes, few Canberrans can name more than a handful of the local politicians who have been sitting in the ACT Legislative assembly for the past four years, so the lack of name recognition for independents is fairly unsurprising.

But at a minimum there does seem to be at least some awareness in the ACT community that independents are much better organised at this election.

The key question is: Will any independent-curious vibes actually translate into a meaningful number of votes?

Independents are much better organised this year

The group Independents for Canberra has been set up as a mechanism to catch a wave of support if — and it is an if — it arrives in the ACT.

Ten so-called "lead" candidates are running — two in each of the five territory electorates.

Tom Emerson, the most high-profile candidate, hopes the group can win enough seats to snatch the balance of power.

They'd probably need at least three of the 25 on offer to become the Chief Minister-makers, a role that has been held consistently by the Greens since 2008.

"People want to see a change to the status quo. We've had the majors here for a long time doing the same thing, Labor and the Greens working in this kind of coalition where they blame each other for not being able to get things done.

"Independents don't have to be a chaotic force but they can actually work together, while also being free to disagree all the time."

Any candidates elected under the Independents for Canberra banner will consider three things if they are key to forming the next government.

Which party won the most seats? Who will agree to some of the group's policies? And do either of the candidates for Chief Minister have positions they find objectionable?

Mr Emerson, whose father is the former federal Labor Minister Craig Emerson, concedes it is possible that his group might be split on who should govern.

"We are genuinely open to backing anyone," he said, when I ask if his self-described "progressive" views better align with Labor than the Canberra Liberals.

"What we are trying to do is get away from ideology. I'm a more progressive person, we've got a range of different views within the group and those views reflect the different views in the different electorates in the ACT."

The group has a slick social media operation targeting younger voters and if you use Instagram in the Canberra region then you will have probably already seen some of their content.

But they aren't the only prominent independents running.

Fiona Carrick is standing again in the electorate of Murrumbidgee. She finished fourth on first preferences at the 2020 election and was only defeated in the final stages of the vote count.

This time she's pulled together a small list of like-minded candidates and her campaign is taking a relatively low-tech approach with her volunteers doorknocking, holding banners near major roads and handing out flyers at shops.

While Independents for Canberra wants to change ACT politics, one of Ms Carrick's priorities is getting a new pool, community facilities and infrastructure for her electorate, in places like Woden and the Molonglo Valley.

"Everything in recent years has [been] centralised in the city and inner north," Ms Carrick said.

"When I was growing up in Woden you could swim, play indoor sports, there was nightlife all through Phillip.

David Pocock, teals have inspired candidates to run

The independents believe there is broad voter dissatisfaction in Australia with the major parties.

They have been encouraged by the victories of the so-called teal independents and the relatively low major party primary vote at the 2022 federal election.

There is also the local success of Wallabies star-turned ACT Senator David Pocock, whose muscular shadow looms over this election.

Unlike the recent push in Tasmania by his upper house colleague Jacqui Lambie, Senator Pocock is not running local candidates under his name or brand.

If one of the independents is embroiled in controversy, an internal dispute or the campaign is a total flop, then he has some distance from them.

However, Senator Pocock has made it very clear he hopes they are successful.

Until recently Tom Emerson worked for him as an adviser. They are often seen together and sometimes post photos on social media of their various athletic pursuits.

"The Hare-Clarke system [the system the ACT uses] makes it an uphill battle for independent candidates to get elected but we've seen in the past the great contribution they can make."

Independents have struggled for decades in the ACT

But there are several reasons — in addition to the electoral system — to suspect independents may have a difficult time achieving their aims in the ACT.

David Pocock's success at the 2022 Senate campaign was due, in part, to many Canberrans ditching their normal party allegiances to vote strategically to try to remove Liberal Morrison-government Minister Zed Seselja.

That's likely to be less of a factor this time around. Labor, the Canberra Liberals and the Greens are campaigning hard to boost their representation in the Legislative Assembly.

Also, local Canberra elections get vastly less media coverage than federal campaigns and have not been a happy hunting ground for independents since the 1990s.

It can be hard for them — or their teams — to reach people who are disengaged from politics and build a big profile in a city that's much more focused on Parliament House.

The last few independents left the ACT Legislative Assembly at the 2001 election, the date Labor's nearly 23-year stint in office began.

A quick search of coverage from previous ACT election campaigns finds references to potential independents or minor party movements that have ultimately been unsuccessful.

Given the paucity of reliable opinion polls in the ACT, it is very difficult to accurately judge how independents are tracking this time.

They are one of the biggest unknowns of the election.

"I don't know what shaking it up looks like, but I would like to be in the Legislative Assembly doing it."