Twelve months ago Chris Fagan sat in the bowels of the MCG, just minutes after his Brisbane Lions had fallen agonisingly short of premiership glory.

It didn't take Fagan long to refocus, to September 2024.

"You know there's lots of teams in the history of the game that have lost close grand finals have gone on to win premierships in the ensuing years," Fagan told the media after the heartbreaking loss to Collingwood.

"So, you know me — that'll be my attitude."

ABC Sport is live blogging every round of the AFL and NRL seasons in 2024.

Almost exactly 12 months before Fagan's proclamation, John Longmire sat in the same spot in the same room in the same position. So close, yet so far from the ultimate goal.

Coming back from a loss when victory is so close is tough. But as the novelist F. Scott Fitzgerald once wrote, "You mustn't confuse a single failure with a final defeat".

In the world of footy, full of narratives that can span years and decades, it can often be just one day that shapes a career.

The 2024 AFL grand final pits the minor premiers of 2024 against the team that has won the most games over the last three seasons. Both are looking to right the wrongs of a recent grand final past.

Both sides are well-oiled, formidable machines. They've beaten the other 16 sides on the way to the final game of the season.

This is how each side will win the 2024 AFL grand final.

Sydney's red and white defensive wall

A lot tends to go right for a footy team when you finish the year on top of the ladder. For much of the season the Sydney Swans were the pace-setters.

The Swans finished first in a whole variety of important categories, from games won to points scored.

Sometimes it's hard to pin down the origin of the strengths of such a complete side.

But for the Swans, recent history makes it a little easier. A lot of what makes the side tick is the work they do without the ball in hand.

The Swans brand has long been built on defensive effort, as explained by Sydney star Errol Gulden.

"I think we defended really well. Which obviously, our offence comes off of the back of that," Gulden said after the win over Port Adelaide.

"When we defend the ground well, we set up well, it's obviously a little bit easier to get the ball going forward."

"The basis of our game is off our defence."

That's been true since, seemingly, the start of the 21st century.

Even when the Swans missed the finals in 2019 and 2020 they were still throttling opposition entries up forward.

Those two years taught the Swans a valuable lesson – the value of the counter-attack.

The Swans are at the top for scores from intercepts in the defensive half of the ground. If a side slacks defensively off after losing a chance to score the harboursiders know how to exploit them.

For most sides, this would come at the cost of defence. The Swans, however, have been able to catch lightning in a bottle. They're able to both effectively stop teams and do damage simultaneously.

Sydney's transition game comes in a couple of different forms — quick through the middle or slow up the wing.

Sydney's first instinct is to get the ball moving quickly through the corridor. If a side overcommits to the middle of the ground the Swans are adept at deploying quick little leads to the boundary. This can lull the other team into a false sense of security.

Both modes are dangerous, but opposition teams have preferred to see the latter at the expense of the former.

The Sydney defensive effectiveness is also a little unconventional.

The Swans concede more shots than some of the other top sides but they're adept at forcing teams to take low-percentage shots. On the field, you'll notice them denying access to the hotspots straight in front of goal.

Instead, they are content to allow leading marks to the fringes of the 50-metre arc. Sydney's opponents average much more difficult shots than any other side.

They also have a preference to spoil – finishing as the number one spoiling side who also face the fewest one-on-one contests per game. This helps cover for their slightly undersized defensive unit.

Against most teams this combination is deadly. But Brisbane isn't like most teams.

The Lions' roar in the front half

For the past six seasons, few sides have brushed the danger in attack of the Brisbane Lions.

Brisbane is firmly a front half team, scoring heavily from front half intercepts and stoppages.

They try to trap their opponents in their forward line and keep them there.

Their multi pronged attack can beat opponents regardless of their defensive strengths. If teams have strong tall defenders, they can isolate someone like Charlie Cameron or Cam Rayner deeper.

Against teams that have weaker tall stocks, they will look to target Joe Daniher or Eric Hipwood.

They can play fast and slow, and score in both congestion and space. Coming up with a plan to stop the Lions in attack is one of the hardest jobs in footy.

"The second half was our brand. We shifted the ball and made them defend." Lions leader Lachie Neale reflected after their epic preliminary final win.

It's a brand that Fagan has stuck by through thick and thin. After their loss to GWS dropped them to a record of two wins and five losses, Fagan told ABC Sport that he was sticking with what worked.

"We certainly haven't, you know, tried to change the way that we're playing. It's been a pretty successful way to play for the last five or so years."

The underlying parts of the Lions' play were working even if the results weren't there. As the season progressed the Brisbane attack slowly found their feet.

One element of their attack continued to lag, however.

The Lions' accuracy in front of goal has struggled, especially when it comes to regulation set shots.

The Lions found their kicking boots last week against Geelong. It was likely what propelled them into the grand final.

Funkiness reigns for the Swans and Lions

If the Swans and Lions are set for a blockbuster match at one end of the ground, what about the other end? You know, the end with multiple All Australians from both teams?

This might be selling the other part of the equation short. Part of this might be due to some of the funkiness from both teams on display.

The Sydney forward line is a great example of this. The Swans may have finished first for points scored this year, but they also finished last for marks inside 50 per inside 50 entry.

Instead of looking for big grabs, the Swans are devoted to the team game.

"Everyone just played their role. My role last week was just to compete and bring the ball to ground. You know Paps [Tom Papley] did the damage and now everyone got their lick of the ice cream tonight." Joel Amartey said last week.

"It's just everyone playing their role."

Amartey's comments underline Sydney's team first approach to attack. The Swans also lead the league for attacking spoils – preventing opposition intercept marks and allowing their dangerous small forwards to create havoc.

The Swans are more willing to stretch their scoring zone than most teams. The Swans lead the league for goals – and shots – outside 50. This creates coverage headaches for any opposition side.

If Sydney's flexible attack is somewhat deliberate, injuries have forced Brisbane to adapt on their feet. Injuries to their defensive stocks through the year have forced the Harris Andrews-led unit to adapt and overcome.

Brisbane's ability to stop opposition sides from doing damage up forward relies more on stopping the ball getting forward rather than a lockdown, last line defence. The Lions are below league average for opposition points per inside 50 — an indication of this weakness.

When the Lions do win the ball in their back half, rebounding defenders such as Dayne Zorko can do damage at a moment's notice.

While the Lions tend to control the tempo more coming out of the backline using uncontested marks, they can also catch opposition sides napping.

Differences in the middle could be the deciding factor

Some sides focus on using won clearances to do damage on the scoreboards directly, while others like to use them to dominate territory and wear teams down.

Sydney falls in the former category and Brisbane more in the latter. This split might be a major deciding point in the game.

Coming into the season Longmire acknowledged improvement in the contest as a priority.

"During different times, and certainly in different parts of the game last year, we were actually pretty good at it and then we just dropped away in other parts." Longmire said prior to the start of the season.

The recruitment of players such as Brodie Grundy and James Jordon have given their contest game a shot in the arm — getting first possession more often.

Despite this the Swans tend to lose the contested possession balance. That's an area they tend to lose heavily when beaten, like against Port Adelaide in round 21.

By contrast, the Lions are dominant when it comes to winning the hard ball — both in clearances and elsewhere up the ground.

Brisbane's group of well-rounded midfielders can attack and defend equally, giving their forward half game a kickstart. In recent weeks the return of Will Ashcroft has added some dynamism to the star-studded group.

At times they can struggle to get effective looks at goal directly from clearances — especially when they aren't locked in the front half. Overall, the balance usually works, but sometimes they can be a bit rushed when getting the ball upfield.

A classic grand final could be ready to unfold

These little battles across the ground will all play a big part of the result of the season.

On paper, very little separates the two sides. In their previous meeting, the Lions staged a fourth-quarter comeback to win by just two points.

That game played a bit out to the form guide. Brisbane won 10 more clearances than Sydney, but the Swans kicked four goals extra from them. Brisbane, by contrast, was able to score heavily from turnovers.

Brisbane controlled the game via uncontested marks, while Sydney tested the Lions for speed and efficiency going inside 50.

And, of course, Brisbane's inaccuracy in front of goals nearly cost them the game.

If that game is anything to go by, this could be a classic.

The 2024 grand final is set to be a cauldron of built-up emotion.

For one side, recent failure will become a final success.

The other will rue another missed opportunity at AFL greatness. A chance that may not come again.