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Posted: 2024-09-28 08:20:24

Israel's assassination of Hassan Nasrallah has removed the most powerful figure in Lebanese politics.

Hezbollah is not just a militant group, it is a major Lebanese political party which has held office in various governments and played a large role in Lebanese politics.

A Hezbollah member was found guilty by an international tribunal of killing former Lebanese PM Rafik Hariri in 2005, although the tribunal did not find evidence the group's leaders had ordered the assassination.

Nasrallah was often described as being more powerful than elected officials and Hezbollah is militarily stronger than the Lebanese Armed Forces.

Nasrallah's assassination has led to some hopes that Lebanon - which has had no president since 2022 - may be able to enact reforms to its confessional political system, where positions are allocated based on religious sect or ethnic background.

There are contrasting fears that the instability and power vacuum created by his death will lead to internal violence and intensify Lebanon's political dysfunction.

Hezbollah had no mandate from the broader Lebanese population to enter the war against Israel and many Lebanese have felt powerless as the group continued its rocket fire in the face of intensifying Israeli strikes.

Many Lebanese from the Christian and Sunni Muslim communities are privately expressing happiness at news of Nasrallah's demise.

But don't expect too many open celebrations in Lebanon about Nasrallah's death, not just because of the visible suffering of hundreds of thousands of displaced Lebanese, but also because people fear retaliation from Hezbollah's heavily-armed remaining members.

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