Dylan McConnell, an energy systems analyst at UNSW, said the grid’s record-breaking bursts of instantaneous renewable energy were “good markers of progress and should be celebrated”.

But the increase in the average share of renewable energy across the past year “tells less of a positive story”, he said.

Renewable energy had a 38.9 per cent share of the electricity mix in the past three months, which was only slightly higher than the 38.7 per cent it had in the same quarter of 2023, he said.

“We are moving forward, it is happening, just not as fast as we need it to be,” McConnell said.

“The thing that matters for emissions and the energy transition is the overall, annual number.”

The Albanese government is aiming to double the share of renewable energy to at least 82 per cent by 2030 as part of its commitment to cutting national emissions by 43 per cent on 2005 levels and reaching net zero by 2050.

While a growing number of experts and industry players believe Australia is set to fall short of that goal, McConnell believes it may still be reachable depending on the speed and scale of the delivery of new renewable generation and storage projects under the government’s plan to turbocharge the financing of new projects, known as the Capacity Investment Scheme.

The underwriting scheme targets the construction of 23 gigawatts of renewable energy generation by the end of the decade, as well as nine gigawatts of additional “dispatchable” assets, such as batteries and pumped hydro, which can store clean energy and provide it to the grid at times when the sun goes down and the wind disappears.

“It’s possible that people are being too pessimistic,” McConnell said.

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