With polling booths set to open in less than 24 hours, signs are emerging that tomorrow's Queensland election result might not be as clear-cut as predicted.
For much of this year, polling has suggested the LNP and party leader David Crisafulli would stride to victory, but after four weeks of campaigning some cracks have appeared.
ABC election analyst Antony Green says the Newspoll published today in The Australian shows the Queensland opposition's effort to wrest the government from Labor's hands will be a "much more nip-and-tuck affair".
The result of 1,151 Queenslanders polled from last Friday to yesterday suggests a much narrower LNP victory, on a two-party-preferred result of 52.5 per cent to the LNP and 47.5 per cent to Labor.
Meanwhile, a robo-poll survey of 3,651 Queenslanders conducted last night by Labor-aligned firm uComms suggests an even tighter result — putting the LNP at 51 per cent to Labor's 49 per cent, two-party-preferred.
The LNP needs at least 12 more seats to win government and more than a third of Queenslanders have already cast a pre-poll or postal vote.
Green said the question will be where the swing occurs.
"Most of Labor's marginal seats are in northern Queensland in the regional cities where there is expected to be a big swing — this statewide [Newspoll] doesn't really break that down," he said.
But he said winning regional Queensland seats might not get the LNP to victory.
"The LNP would need to start winning seats in Brisbane."
Seats in Greater Brisbane of most concern to the ALP include Redlands, currently held on a 3.9 per cent margin; Pine Rivers (6.7 per cent); and even minister Mick de Brenni's seat of Springwood (8.3 per cent).
But there are also concerns about the seat of Redcliffe (6.1 per cent), where Labor stalwart Yvette D'Ath is retiring and could take with her a strong personal vote.
In the Logan-based seat of Macalister, a 9.1 per cent margin might not be enough to hold off the LNP's candidate Rob van Manen, who is being helped along by strong name recognition as brother of federal MP Bert van Manen, whose seat of Forde overlaps the state electorate.
'Labor needs to hold onto a bunch of regional seats'
Much of the focus in campaigning has been on regional Queensland, as this is where Labor is expected to struggle most.
"Labor needs to hold onto a bunch of regional seats — Cairns, Mackay, Townsville, Bundaberg, Rockhampton — these are all seats which some of them have Labor history going back almost a century," Green said.
"Cairns has only left the Labor fold once since 1904."
The north Queensland seats of Townsville, as well as neighbouring Thuringowa and Mundingburra will almost certainly be Labor losses.
The question is which way they will fall.
"There is talk this morning from internal polling that Katter's Australian Party may be the beneficiary in northern Queensland and Townsville, that Labor may slip to third and Labor's preferences tend to flow to Katter's Australian Party," Green said.
"That's another roadblock in the way of the LNP winning the election."
KAP are also expected to be competitive in the Far North Queensland seat of Cook.
Further south, the Central Queensland seat of Keppel is likely to be a tussle between the LNP and One Nation.
Mackay and Rockhampton — both typically Labor heartland — are in play because Labor MPs are retiring in both seats, which raises the spectre of an LNP minority government.
'A big challenge'
So, where might the campaign have come unstuck for the LNP?
The abortion debate has proven divisive for the LNP in recent weeks, with Mr Crisafulli unwilling to rule out a conscience vote if KAP tables a private member's bill in the next parliament.
But Labor's newly installed premier Steven Miles has also campaigned strongly.
ALP state secretary Kate Flanders said having Mr Miles entering the election weekend as preferred premier in the latest poll is "a very clear recognition of his policy agenda".
"He has had a fantastic campaign in showing Queenslanders who he is."
Mr Crisafulli repeated his oft-quoted line that the LNP enter the election as "underdogs".
"Elections in Queensland are always a big challenge," he said this morning.
"It shows you how difficult changing government to my side of politics is in Queensland.
"We've got to win over a dozen seats and we start a long way behind the eight-ball."