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Posted: 2024-10-24 18:53:37

Airlines travelling over the Middle East are redirecting their aircraft away from the region as tensions between Israel and Iran are poised to enter a new phase, aviation industry watchers say.

When Iran launched a barrage of missiles at Israel earlier this month, commercial aircraft flying over the region diverted away from the area.

Some airlines have since avoided airspace over Iraq and Iran in anticipation of an Israeli retaliatory attack.

Singapore Airlines, Lufthansa and British Airways have even started using Afghanistan's airspace after years of avoiding the country.

The alternative routes are increasing fares, adding hours to flights, and causing congestion, but airlines say they cannot take any chances.

Airlines taking the long way around conflict

On October 1, Iran said it had fired about 200 missiles at Israel in response to the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and senior Revolutionary Guard commander Abbas Nilforooshan. 

The Iranian attack, which killed six people and injured nine, forced the closure of Israeli, Jordanian and Iraqi airspace and the diversion of flights away from parts of the Middle East.

Flightradar24 said about 80 flights operated by airlines such as British Airways, Emirates, Lufthansa and Qatar Airways, were diverted to other airports including Cairo.

Israel's Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said his country's response to Iran's strikes would be "lethal" and "surprising". 

"They will not understand what happened and how it happened," Mr Gallant said.

While some airlines have resumed using that airspace, the risk of further conflict has caused some companies to reroute their flights to avoid getting caught in the crossfire.

AirlineRatings.com editor-in-chief Geoffrey Thomas said that has meant some flights from major airport hubs in the Middle East had to take the long away around.

The Middle Eastern civil aviation market made up nearly 10 per cent of the world's passengers, according to the International Air Transport Association.

With Ukraine's airspace closed because of Russia's invasion, Mr Thomas said many of those flights that would normally travel over Iraq and Iran, had to fly a longer route over Saudi Arabia.

He said that leads to higher fares and longer flight times for travellers. 

Emirates airliners are seen on the tarmac in a general view of Dubai International Airport.

Aircraft leaving major airport hubs in the Middle East, including Dubai, have been affected by the conflict. (Reuters: Abdel Hadi Ramahi)

"Those aircraft would take off and typically travel directly over Iraq into Türkiye and then along the bottom of the Black Sea, because they're avoiding Ukrainian airspace as well," Mr Thomas said.

"So because they can't travel over Iraq or Iran, because still Iran is a major thoroughfare for aircraft as well, they've got to take a more circuitous route over Saudi Arabia.

"It impacts travellers with higher airfares … it varies from airline to airline as to how exactly it impacts but typically it's higher airfares."

MH17 a 'wake-up' call for aviation industry

London School of Economics Department of International Relations PhD scholar Kazimier Lim said the changes were congesting some of the remaining routes available to aircraft near the Middle East.

"There used to be three pre-war corridors and with the conflict in the Middle East suddenly you have one of the corridors in the middle, through Iran, through Iraq, being closed," Mr Lim said.

"Suddenly what you have is of the four corridors, only two which are through Türkiye, Azerbaijan and through Egypt and Saudi Arabia, handling suddenly twice as much traffic than they used to."

The Lufthansa Group, which owns several European airlines, said it would avoid Iraqi and Iranian airspace, except for departures and arrivals into Erbil, Iraq, until further notice.

UAE state-owned carrier Emirates said it had suspended flights to Baghdad, Iran and Beirut until the end of October. 

Qatar Airways said it had temporarily suspended flights to Iraq, Iran and Lebanon until further notice, while flights to Amman, Jordan would only operate during daylight hours.

The European Union Aviation Safety Authority's (EASA) Conflict Zone Information Bulletin advised European airlines to avoid Iranian, Syrian and Lebanese airspace.

It also advised taking extra precautions travelling over Israel and to Iraq because of the risk of "misidentification of civil aircraft" by missiles, rockets and drone strikes. 

Mr Thomas said the aviation industry received a "wake-up call" in 2014 when Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 was shot down over southern Ukraine on July 17, 2014. 

A piece of plane wreckage bearing the Malaysia Airlines livery in a field.

Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 was shot down over Ukraine in 2014. (Getty Images: Rob Stothard)

An investigation by the Dutch Safety Board found that a Russian-made missile exploded above the left side of the aircraft's cockpit.

All 298 passengers and crew aboard the Boeing 777 died, including 38 Australian citizens and residents.

"MH17 was a wake-up call for the industry because that air route was open. It was an open air route," Mr Thomas said. 

"Since then, airlines have taken a far more aggressive approach to conflict zones and make their own assessments.

"The International Civil Aviation Organization, the governing body of aviation, also has taken a more robust view of conflict zones, particularly where it comes to missiles that terrorists or warring groups might be using."

Aircraft reroute over Afghanistan to avoid Middle East

Some airlines have re-routed their aircraft over Afghanistan to avoid large parts of the Middle East.

Aircraft flying against blue sky.

Qantas flights to London fly over Afghanistan.  (ABC News: Andrew O'Connor)

A Reuters analysis of Flightradar24 data showed airlines, including Singapore Airlines, British Airways and Lufthansa, have increased their flights over Afghanistan since the start of the Middle East conflict.

The European Union Aviation Safety Authority has advised airlines not to fly over Afghanistan because "extremist non-state actor groups" were active and might "sporadically" target aviation facilities.

Mr Lim said flying over Afghanistan was a risk because there was no air traffic control in the country after the Taliban takeover.

"Since the Taliban took over Afghanistan … there isn't expertise anymore or anyone basically handling air traffic control," Mr Lim said.

"How planes are navigating is through communicating with other pilots, other planes in the air so it becomes sort of word of mouth.

"While this is not technically illegal in terms of safety standards, it does pose a serious risk when it comes to air navigation."

QF1 flies over Afghanistan.

Flightradar24 shows Qantas flight QF1 flying over Afghanistan airspace on October 21, 2024. (Supplied: Flightradar24)

Qantas flights to London travel over Afghanistan's airspace, according to Flightradar24.

The airline said it regularly reviewed its flight paths based on a number of factors, including weather and security.

Pilot and OPSGROUP operations specialist Andy Spencer told the ABC that operating without air traffic control was not unusual in some parts of Australia.

"There's often times where Airservices Australia can't maintain air traffic control services due to staff manpower so they convert it to non-controlled," Mr Spencer said.

"It's a very viable option. Given everything that's going on it's probably the safest option or one of the safest options at the moment."

Mr Thomas said airlines, such as Qantas, have had strict measures in place to ensure their flight paths were safe.

"With Qantas for instance, one of the things they look at is if they have to divert," he said.

"How close is a friendly airport … comes into the equation as well because they don't want to land somewhere where there's no support structure, no hotels, no hospitals."

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