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Posted: 2024-11-15 05:52:08

Millennials and Gen Xers, families with children, higher-income and culturally and linguistically diverse households are less inclined than most Australians to fear or lament Donald Trump's victory. 

A survey of Australian attitudes to the United States election also suggests that while women, Greens and Labor voters are deeply unsettled by Mr Trump's re-election, a significant portion of other groups are taking a more sanguine view.

The surprise findings, based on a poll of 1,000 people over last weekend by JWS Research, come as all sides of politics scramble to draw lessons from Mr Trump's return to power with a federal election due to be held no later than mid-May.

Though the polling is clear that Mr Trump would struggle to win a majority in Australia — it found "extreme negative reactions" to the president-elect outweigh "extreme positive reactions" by three to one — his campaign's focus on cost-of-living appears to have resonated among key voter groups likely to be critical in swing electorates.

In particular, people aged between 35 and 54 years, a group that is mostly likely to be suffering from mortgage and housing stress, posted rates of "positive" reactions that were above the national average. Likewise households with children.

Australians charmed by the prospect of economic benefits

While most Australians have major concerns about Mr Trump's criminality and competency, as well as fears about misogyny and unpredictability, those with positive feelings mainly cited prospects of economic benefits under the future president.

Hope about Mr Trump's future performance appears based on his history as a "businessman" and a belief that he will not adopt hardline protectionist tariffs against a close ally like Australia.

A graphic showing the key findings from JWS Research, against a flag background.

Source: JWS Research survey of 1,000 Australian voters.  (ABC News)

"People appear to remember benefiting from the US stock market performance during his first term and believe the same will carry through in his second," JWS founder John Scales said.

"People think he will get more done because of his aggressive, confident statements on policy, but don't think through what the actual impact of those policies mean for Australian industries."

Debate has raged about the drivers of the Republican victory since Mr Trump's emphatic election win almost two weeks ago, which saw swings to the former president in all but one state and Washington DC.

One possible explanation is that despite the strong US economy and healthy labour market, American voters were more swayed by the sense that their living standards were worse than four years ago.

Chief economist at the US Department of Labour, Betsey Stevenson, admitted in the days following the Democratic loss that she was wrong to assume that people would prioritise policies that support low unemployment at the cost of higher prices.

"I failed to understand just how much anger high prices would bring," she said.

Cost of living the main focus, Chalmers says

A recent survey published this month by the Susan McKinnon Foundation, based on research by JWS, found Australians want the Reserve Bank of Australia to prioritise taming inflation ahead of protecting jobs.

The survey found 46 per cent of Australians prioritise keeping inflation low, while just 12 per cent believe keeping unemployment low should be the priority.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers, in a series of unscripted remarks, told a union conference in Perth late on Thursday that the government "didn't need an election on the other side of the world to tell us to focus on the main game which is the cost of living".

Chalmers looks serious as he stares out of frame.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers told a conference overnight that "the cost of living is our major focus as a government".  (ABC News: Matt Roberts.)

"We didn't need an election on the other side of the world to tell us we don't have time as a governing party to stuff around on second-tier issues," he said.

"We have to stay focused on what really matters and we are. That's why the cost of living is our major focus as a government.

"When you think about it, making sure that there are more people working, more people earning more, more people keeping more of what they earn, that is really a pretty neat encapsulation of our reason for being as a movement."

Mr Trump's campaign drove a similar message, albeit different in style, of promising a suite of tax cuts on income, overtime, social security and tips.

The JWS survey suggests Australians were glued to the US election, which was billed by pundits as a battle between Democrats who campaigned on Mr Trump's personal flaws and scandals, versus the Republican campaign that focused on reasons people felt the country was "heading in the wrong direction".

Some 61 per cent of people surveyed said they paid attention to the presidential race, versus 39 per cent who didn't, with a quarter saying they followed it "very closely".

Australians air their views on Trump

When asked how they felt about his win, 51 per cent reported negative feelings, including 30 per cent who felt "extremely negative".

"He has radicalised the nation and the world," said one respondent to the survey, according to JWS.

Another called him "unpredictable" and said "his decisions will affect Australians, both positively and negatively".

"He is a loose cannon," said a third.

By contrast, only 28 per cent felt positive, with 10 per cent reporting an "extremely positive" reaction.

The upbeat views were significantly higher, at 39 per cent compared to 28 per cent overall, among people who were tuned into the contest.

"He's willing to stand up for issues despite opposition," said one person.

"He gets things done, is a straight shooter not a 'woke'."

Mr Scales said it would soon become clear whether Mr Trump would be able to deliver on his promises, noting former New York governor Mario Cuomo's political maxim that candidates "campaign in poetry, govern in prose".

"As Trump found himself in his first presidency in 2016, new leaders and governments always may meet with a range of practical obstacles once in power."

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