Brisbane is forecast to see double digit growth in 2025 outpacing other capitals except Perth and beating 2024’s home price rises.

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A shock new forecast expects Brisbane home prices to sizzle in 2025, rising by more than the average wage in one year alone as the Queensland capital refuses to slow down.

SQM Research’s annual Christopher’s Housing Boom and Bust Report for 2025 – released Monday night – expects Brisbane homes to outpace national growth dramatically, rising 9 to 14 per cent in the new year, amounting to a median dwelling rise of between $77,000 to $120,000.

Report author Louise Christopher said that was the base case scenario for Brisbane if interest rates are cut 25 to 50 points some time in 2025, but warned the Queensland capital would go ballistic if the Reserve Bank cuts rates as early as March.

In that case a jump in prices of as much as 16 per cent was expected – which would see the PropTrack median dwelling price for Brisbane ($862,000) surge by $138,000 in 2025 alone, far outpacing the average salary.

“There is no sign of a slowdown at all,” Mr Christopher told The Courier-Mail, with 2024 to become the 12th straight year of growth across the Queensland capital.

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The median dwelling price across Brisbane is set to rise $77,000 to as much as $138,000 in 2025 according to forecasts. Pic: Sophie Foster,

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“Keep in mind Brisbane looks like it’s going to do about 15 per cent this year (2024)”, Mr Christopher said – a figure which is 4 points higher than the most optimistic growth forecast set for Brisbane in 2024.

This after Brisbane saw “another year of strong population growth” – estimated at 2.5 per cent in 2024 across an already tight housing market.

“That’s just continually putting pressure on the availability of supply relative to demand of real estate in Brisbane.”

Only Perth prices are forecast to grow at a faster pace than Brisbane – predicted at 14 to 19 per cent in its base case, and as high as 20 per cent if rates move early – with every other capital unable to keep up.

“We started the year thinking Brisbane would outperform the market through to the 2032 Olympics and there’s nothing in the data we can see that suggests a change in that view.”

“So we are expecting the Brisbane market to perform better than the overall national market average next year. We think it will beat all markets, except Perth.”

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SQM Research founder Louis Christopher saw his most optimistic forecasts for 2024 beaten in Brisbane as the Queensland capital continued to surge.

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The report expects prices in Sydney and Melbourne to fall between -5 to -1 per cent in 2025 but said that would not slow demand for Brisbane from people priced out of southern capitals.

“Brisbane is not offering as good a value as what it did previously, but compared to Sydney and Melbourne, it’s still offering relatively good value,” he said. “So you’re (Brisbane) still getting this flow from southern states where housing affordability is out of reach for most people”.

“They’re looking for a growth area which is affordable, and Brisbane comes up trumps on that front.”

The biggest drop in home prices in 2025 was expected to come out of Canberra, between -6 to -2 per cent.

SQM Research’s base case scenario for 2025 is an interest-rate cut of between 0.25 to 0.50 per cent over mid 2025, with inflation to continue to moderate and the overall economy to continue to see below trend growth.

“If interest rates are cut as forecasted, this event will immediately stimulate homebuyer demand across the country,” Mr Christopher said.

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