"As we said at the time, though, we cannot entirely rule out an earlier start date of 18 February or 1 April should outcomes continue to undershoot the RBA’s expectations, especially for trimmed mean inflation.

"Today’s change of language represents a welcome acknowledgement that disinflation remains on track and that we are getting closer to the point that some of the current policy restrictiveness can be withdrawn.

"And in the media conference, the Governor conceded that there were scenarios in which the Board ended up cutting in February, while prudently choosing not to describe one.

"In acknowledging that reality, the RBA has clearly tilted the probabilities back towards an earlier start date for the rate-cutting phase than where it stood a few weeks ago.

"It does not, however, shift that balance of probabilities enough to change our base case to be earlier than May just yet.

"The RBA still assess aggregate demand as exceeding aggregate supply. While ever it continues to believe this, it will be cautious about embarking on rate cuts.

"Any shifts back towards an earlier timetable depend on the data flow from here, especially on the labour market and trimmed mean inflation."