This year, however, we’ve only had two. The longer things “melt up” as they are now, the sharper the corrections tend to be.
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Historical data shows that in years when the S&P500 records at least 50 new highs, the following year’s median return is -6 per cent. This year, the S&P500 has made no less than 57.
A rising tide lifts all boats, but it also obscures which companies have strong underlying business models. When the tide goes out, you discover who’s been swimming naked – and who’s merely riding the wave of exuberance, which this year has been thanks to AI “animal spirits” and the fabled Trump Bump.
A continuously rising market disproportionately benefits older generations who already have significant wealth in equities. Corrections, on the other hand, offer younger investors the chance to buy at more reasonable valuations, avoiding the trap of “chasing” overinflated stock prices.
History also tells us that post-election, stocks tend to rally until inauguration day. So, over the holiday season, it might be worth putting together another Santa list of stocks to buy in a hoped-for new year pullback.
For now, as the Grinch might say: “Blast this bull market– it’s joyful and triumphant!”
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