The Coalition is preparing a pre-election package promising to dramatically increase the supply of domestic gas, including through softer regulations, to push down energy bills for households and businesses.
Details of the promise to voters, which follows months of consultation with the gas industry, are being calibrated to counter Labor's likely strategy of ongoing direct-to-households energy bill relief.
Boosting the extraction and use of gas in the energy grid as coal-fired power generation winds down this decade would also address a tricky political shortfall in Peter Dutton's pledge to embrace future nuclear power: its inability to bring short-term relief.
The Coalition admitted on Friday that its nuclear plan, which would not see reactors up and running until next decade, would do nothing to bring down energy bills in the near or longer term.
Sources familiar with the Coalition's deliberations confirmed to the ABC there would be cornerstone announcements on gas that would create a point of difference with Labor's approach to the energy source.
Supporters of the fuel argue it emits less carbon than burning coal and can help fill gaps in energy supply when renewables are off and coal generation falters or gets retired, as is forecast this decade and next.
Nuclear just the start
Peter Dutton said gas "will be incredibly important" for the grid and insisted he is eager accelerate new projects such a Narrabri in NSW to ensure more supply comes to market.
"There's lots of gas required," he said on Tuesday.
"We've spoken about discovering more fields and we're strongly supportive of condensing the timelines."
Nationals leader David Littleproud on Tuesday indicated that a new gas strategy was "exactly what we'll be announcing" to bring downward pressure on energy bills for households.
"When you look at it in a commonsense way, the only way that you can reduce bills is to increase supply and the only way you can do that quickly, is to bring on gas and bring gas on quickly into the market," Mr Littleproud told Sky.
The opposition's coming emphasis on a new gas policy comes as Labor mulls its own options to continue an existing package of ongoing energy bill relief support.
It has also shifted its own approach to gas, after initially downplaying its importance to the nation's shifting energy mix, with the release in May of its "Future Gas Strategy". That strategy emphasised its role in shifting to net zero.
At the same time, the Coalition has acknowledged that its nuclear strategy — which the Coalition said last week would cost more than $300 billion over the next quarter-century — is just the start.
Asked at a press conference in Brisbane on Friday how the nuclear plan would reduce the price of people's electricity, Mr Dutton said: "We'll have more to say about our energy policy in relation to the near term.
"It's incredibly important that people get help now and we're determined to do that."
"Another three years, particularly of a Labor-Greens government, is going to see an escalation in electricity and grocery and gas prices like our country hasn't seen before."
A senior coalition source confirmed to the ABC that the gas strategy would be part of the opposition's pitch to voters, and follows Mr Dutton's declaration in September that he would be the "best friend" the mining and energy sector "will ever have".
Collision course with teals in must-win seats
While gas is regarded by both parties as a critical part of the future energy mix, Mr Dutton's full-throated support will be a lightning rod for teal independents holding seats the Liberal Party regards as must-wins for its hopes of clinching a majority.
Independents including Monique Ryan, who holds the former Liberal stronghold of Kooyong in Melbourne's affluent eastern suburbs, have been staunch opponents of government support for fossil fuel export and energy projects.
However, Mr Dutton will argue that burning more gas for energy generation offers an alternative to spending taxpayer funds to keep aging coal plants alive for longer, which is the approach adopted by the Victorian and NSW Labor governments.
And while many climate groups dispute the gas industry's argument that electricity generated from gas peaking plants releases fewer carbon emissions than coal does, the Coalition has long supported the energy source as a way to lower climate pollution.
The former Morrison government in 2021 launched what it described as a national "gas-fired recovery", including incentivising producers to put more gas into the domestic market.
One industry expert told the ABC there were at least 40,000 petajoules of gas reserves in Queensland's Surat Basin alone, which would cover the 20,000 petajoules LNG exporters have pledged to offshore customers between now and 2035.
That would leave another 20,000 petajoules for domestic consumption, the person said.
"If you flood the market with more gas, then you can bring the price down to less than $10 a gigajoule."
While the current spot price is between $12 and $14, gas soared in winter to almost $30, which helped drive up wholesale electricity prices to almost $350 a megawatt-hour during the coldest months.
Labor introduced a $12 price cap in late 2022 after a backlash from households and some large business gas buyers, who were left blindsided by a surge in global prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Modelling of the Coalition's nuclear plan, done by Frontier Economics and released on Friday, noted that the cost of extending the life of coal-fired power stations in Gladstone and Eraring "could be avoided to an extent if gas prices were lowered".
"These coal generators pay relatively high prices for their coal as their fuel is shipped from inland to these generators, which are located near major coal export terminals where the coal can just as easily be exported."
Among measures the Coalition is understood to be considering are a series of "carrots and sticks" to encourage gas giants to bring more supply to the domestic market in return for lighter-touch regulation.
This may include de-fanging the Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism to incentivise more investment in new wells.